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Category: Markets

One Way Or Another, Corporate America Always Wins

July 6, 2025July 8, 2025

If it seems to you like corporate America — and here I mean big corporate

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5 Comments on One Way Or Another, Corporate America Always Wins

The Dollar’s Relationship To US Stocks Is Changing

July 5, 2025July 7, 2025

If you’re immersed in the market zeitgeist, you’ve probably heard all you care to by

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Leave a Comment on The Dollar’s Relationship To US Stocks Is Changing

So… What’s The Bear Case Now?

July 3, 2025July 6, 2025

Wall Street headed into Friday’s US holiday on track for another solid weekly gain. And

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8 Comments on So… What’s The Bear Case Now?

Dollar Debate Rages As Trump Upends The World

July 2, 2025July 4, 2025

I suppose this goes without saying, but there’s still a lot of angst out there

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6 Comments on Dollar Debate Rages As Trump Upends The World

Blame Game

July 1, 2025July 2, 2025

Jerome Powell on Tuesday blamed Donald Trump for the Fed’s reluctance to cut rates in

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3 Comments on Blame Game

By Now, Trump’s Probably Right About Rates

June 30, 2025July 1, 2025

In my macro preview for this week, I suggested Jerome Powell might be facing a

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5 Comments on By Now, Trump’s Probably Right About Rates

Scott’s Dilemma

June 30, 2025July 1, 2025

“Well, wha– why would we do that?” Scott Bessent wondered on Monday, when Donald Trump’s

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2 Comments on Scott’s Dilemma

US Equity Flows: Robust Or Sputtering?

June 28, 2025June 30, 2025

Six months in, 2025’s been — how should I put this? — interesting, to employ

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4 Comments on US Equity Flows: Robust Or Sputtering?

Behold: The Fastest Bear Market Recovery Ever

June 27, 2025June 30, 2025

Fast and furious. That’s Donald Trump in his second term. Whether you attribute the breakneck

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3 Comments on Behold: The Fastest Bear Market Recovery Ever

Bubble Watch

June 27, 2025June 29, 2025

We’re on the cusp of a new bubble. Maybe. With US equities back at records,

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3 Comments on Bubble Watch

Trump’s ‘Revenge Tax’ Is Dead

June 26, 2025June 27, 2025

One of Donald Trump’s worst-ever ideas (and that’s really saying something) is dead. On Thursday

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3 Comments on Trump’s ‘Revenge Tax’ Is Dead

The World’s Always Ending. Stocks Rarely Care.

June 25, 2025June 26, 2025

Market participants on Wednesday expressed varying degrees of incredulity at the resilience on display in

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21 Comments on The World’s Always Ending. Stocks Rarely Care.

Volatility-Targeting Models Poised For Biggest-Ever Stock-Buying Spree

June 25, 2025June 26, 2025

Earlier this week, in “Behind The Scenes Of Wall Street’s V-Shaped Recovery,” I spent some

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3 Comments on Volatility-Targeting Models Poised For Biggest-Ever Stock-Buying Spree

Behind The Scenes Of Wall Street’s V-Shaped Recovery

June 24, 2025June 25, 2025

Higher now, lower later. That’s been the equities refrain from Nomura’s Charlie McElligott for the

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14 Comments on Behind The Scenes Of Wall Street’s V-Shaped Recovery

Powell Endures Congressional ‘Work Over’

June 24, 2025June 25, 2025

At 1:32 AM on Tuesday, while — I don’t know — finding his way to

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4 Comments on Powell Endures Congressional ‘Work Over’

Pros Have Never Been This Down On The Dollar

June 20, 2025June 22, 2025

Dollar dominance is facing its biggest test in the (short) history of American empire: True

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4 Comments on Pros Have Never Been This Down On The Dollar

Chris Waller Really Wishes Donald Trump Would Notice Him

June 20, 2025June 22, 2025

Chris Waller would really appreciate it if someone — anyone — would acknowledge how hard

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5 Comments on Chris Waller Really Wishes Donald Trump Would Notice Him

Donald Trump’s Putting Jerome Powell In Danger

June 19, 2025June 20, 2025

When Jerome Powell was asked this week about his “friend down at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue,”

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3 Comments on Donald Trump’s Putting Jerome Powell In Danger

Back To ZIRP!

June 19, 2025June 20, 2025

We’re back to ZIRP. In Switzerland. Swiss monetary policy’s somewhat eccentric. They aim for price

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5 Comments on Back To ZIRP!

Not That, This

June 18, 2025June 20, 2025

Jerome Powell’s press conference was a sleepy, uneventful affair on Wednesday. Although tariff expectations have

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1 Comment on Not That, This

‘Stupid’ Fed Still Sees Two 2025 Cuts, But Fewer Later

June 18, 2025June 19, 2025

The Fed kept rates unchanged Wednesday, much to the chagrin of a certain US president

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4 Comments on ‘Stupid’ Fed Still Sees Two 2025 Cuts, But Fewer Later

Supply And Demand, Buybacks And Robots

June 17, 2025June 18, 2025

This isn’t well understood among a lot of “everyday investors” (whatever that means), but stock

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7 Comments on Supply And Demand, Buybacks And Robots

What To Expect From The June FOMC Meeting

June 15, 2025June 17, 2025

The Fed will keep rates on hold this week. And Donald Trump will be furious

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5 Comments on What To Expect From The June FOMC Meeting

‘Sell America’: Hyperbole Or Epochal Shift?

June 13, 2025June 15, 2025

At the risk of positing a strawman, sometimes it feels like Wall Street strategists and

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Ice Cream TACOs

June 10, 2025June 11, 2025

I hesitate to weigh in on the near-term trajectory of… well, of anything, really. Tomorrow’s

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7 Comments on Ice Cream TACOs

The Bullish Side Of Unprecedented Trade Uncertainty

June 10, 2025June 11, 2025

If you’re searching for a silver lining in the dense fog of uncertainty hanging over

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3 Comments on The Bullish Side Of Unprecedented Trade Uncertainty

Long-Bond Drama Reignites 60/40 Debate

June 8, 2025June 10, 2025

There’s no shortage of handwringing over the dollar’s recent decoupling from Treasury yields. As discussed

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7 Comments on Long-Bond Drama Reignites 60/40 Debate

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Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

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To Be Happy

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Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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