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Bubble-Spotters
Everyone knows the problem with bubble pronouncements, right?
If not, it's simple: Declaring risk a
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“I know that trick all too well: I’ve employed it in these pages on too many occasions to count over the years, and as such I can tell you it’s manifestly disingenuous.”
Yeah, but you explained what was at risk of happening before that Volmageddon thing. Which I couldn’t fully follow before it happened, but after reading the epilogues and the like, I can now maybe sort of explain it to someone. So, yeah, you have license with me (and I bet most of your readers) to prognosticate a little if ever you feel the desire. Learning what was going down in practically real time was fascinating.
Moreover, there is no need to issue a hard call on the market top or bottom. This would indeed be silly. But I do want to know how (subjective) probability of a U-turn is affected by current events.