A key update on US consumer moods managed to beat estimates in data released Tuesday, but an underlying measure of household expectations remained consistent with levels which, historically anyway, presage recession.

That was the overarching message from the Conference Board confidence readout for July. The headline, at 97.2, was a small beat. Consensus was looking for 96.

As a reminder no one should need, both marquee measures of consumer dispositions across the world’s largest economy remain underwater relative to pre-pandemic levels.

The Conference Board measure briefly recovered pre-COVID levels during the Joe Biden honeymoon period which, um, didn’t last, to put it politely. Both measures are also down from pre-“Trump 2.0” levels, although they’ve recouped most of the “Liberation Day” drop.

“Consumer confidence has stabilized since May but remains below last year’s heady levels,” Stephanie Guichard, senior economist at The Conference Board, said Tuesday, adding that “pessimism about the future receded somewhat” this month, as “all three components of the Expectation Index improved.”

Of course, “less pessimistic” isn’t the same thing as optimistic. At 74.4, the expectations gauge remains short of the 80 threshold below which a recession typically ensues. That rule of thumb hasn’t been especially useful in the pandemic era, though.

Probably the most notable takeaway from the release was the labor differential which, at 11.3, was the lowest since March of 2021. The share who said “jobs are hard to get” was 18.9% this month. That’s nearly 4.5ppt higher than it was when Trump took office for the second time.

Not surprisingly, the write-in responses revolved around tariffs, which “remained top of mind and were mostly associated with concerns they would lead to higher prices,” Guichard said, adding that the “big, beautiful bill” was “relatively low on the list of themes that consumers were focused on in July.”

Suffice to say the tax cuts don’t offset the tariffs in the court of public opinion. Just like the tariffs don’t offset the tax cuts for the purposes of the deficit.