It’s a good thing “you can’t really watch the stock market,” as Donald Trump told
Category: Markets
Another Bull Cuts S&P Forecast Citing ‘Crisis Of Confidence’ In America
America’s experiencing a “crisis of confidence” and the US “exceptionalism” narrative needs a new catalyst.
Traders Bet On Hard Landing As US Economy Freezes Over
The US economy’s slowing. I assume that’s obvious, but just in case, the evidence continues
Be Careful, David!
Be careful, David! Donald Trump wants to keep morale up, and you’re not helping. For
Beginnings And Endings
Way back two months ago, I posed a question: “How ironic would it be if
People Are Starting To Notice…
They’re starting to notice. Markets. Economists. Wall Street “strategists.” The financial media. Officials responsible for
A Familiar Chart, A US Stock Exodus And A BIG Idea
I’ll let you in on a little secret: No one in this industry has anything
What If Trump Cuts The Swap Lines?
In the editorial accompanying the March 27 Daily, I highlighted a media report which suggested
S&P Could Crash 30% In Tariff Worst-Case, One Bank Warns
Count Barclays among major banks concerned about the read-through for equities of tariff uncertainty and
Are Record Stock Allocations A Canary?
Are elevated household stock “allocations” a canary? I put “allocations” in scare quotes because there’s
The ‘Less-Bad’ Thesis For Stocks Ahead Of ‘Liberation Day’
Could “Liberation Day” be a buy-the-news event for equities? If you know markets, you’re aware
Killing The Golden Goose
From a near-term, domestic economic perspective, the riskiest aspect of Donald Trump’s agenda is the
Stock ETFs Deluged By $57 Billion Dip-Buying Tsunami
Did you buy the dip? Some folks did. I don’t love “analyzing” flows data anywhere
History Suggests S&P On Bear Market Trajectory
2025’s early-year stock correction on Wall Street will go down as one of the quickest
A Wary Bank Of England Holds Rates Amid ‘Intensified’ Uncertainty
The Bank of England kept rates on hold Thursday as expected. The vote split was
‘Adapting As We Go’
There were two main takeaways from Jerome Powell’s press conference on Wednesday, when the Fed
Meanwhile, In Turkey…
I used to cover Turkish politics, monetary policy and the lira as a matter of
Fund Managers Run Screaming From US Stocks As Trump’s ‘Golden Age’ Dawns
Well, it’s official: US equity exceptionalism’s over. Time of death: March 2025 or, less than
Goldman Slashes M&A Forecast, Sounds Alarm On IPOs
Did Donald Trump kill the nascent M&A recovery? Maybe! So far, the defining feature of
What To Expect From The March FOMC Meeting
I wouldn’t want to be Jerome Powell right now. Or any other time either for
Bonds And Stocks In Dr. Bessent’s ‘Detox’ Clinic
Long bonds or stocks? If you asked that question following the election in November, most
Why Vol Didn’t Show Up For The ‘Trump Correction’
A few readers have asked, both in comments posted publicly and in emails, about the
2000, 2008 And… 2025?
US equities are down 10% from record highs and 10-year US yields are 50bps off
Correction Arrives For US Stocks In $5 Trillion Rout
The S&P entered a correction on Thursday amid persistent trade war angst and, relatedly, the
Bitter Little Pill
Right-wingers like Elon Musk are fond of a Matrix analogy for the world: You’ve got
‘Hard Landing’ Returns To Fore As Tariff ‘Chaos’ Shifts Macro Narrative
Who knows how it’ll ultimately shake out — any of it. But as Tuesday’s session
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