Burning Questions

Are stocks a bubble? Is it too late to jump aboard the moving train? Did you miss the party? Assuming you didn’t, is it time to hedge? Is another August vol shock inevitable? Is the money worthless? If so, should you just buy gold? Or is that a bubble too? What about Bitcoin?

I hope those aren’t the questions that burn in your minds. Because weighty as they surely seem, the clock’s ticking on your time alive as a sentient being capable of advanced reasoning. Soon enough, that clock will strike midnight and the universe will Cinderella-pumpkin-coach you back into dust and then it’ll be too late. Too late to ponder the long list of philosophical questions you should’ve meditated on instead of obsessing over how best to go about accumulating material wealth, which’ll anyway never be enough even if you manage to collect a great deal of it.

That’s how I view the world. And that’s one reason (albeit not the only reason) I generally find the musings of sundry market mavens and finance industry “titans” to be laughably vacuous and worth my time only because I can quote them back to readers who, try as I might to persuade you otherwise, believe people like Warren Buffett, Howard Marks, Paul Tudor Jones and Stan Druckenmiller are wellsprings of profundity.

Anyway, attempting to dissuade people who have enough money as it is (i.e., most of you) from caring about obtaining more is as futile as telling a well-fed chimp he’s had enough bananas. Or an obese US president that 20 McNuggets isn’t just enough McNuggets, it’s 15 too many already.

So here I am, spending another breathtakingly beautiful summer afternoon pretending to care about whether SPX 6300 was the near-term top or whether we can squeeze a few dozen more index points out of this sucker before it all goes up in flames like California on a dry day.

If you’re in the bear camp, first let me apologize. To you, from you, for missing out. Next, let me offer you a chart from the just-released July installment of BofA’s closely-watched global fund manager poll. (Incidentally, “closely-watched” is just boilerplate copy. There isn’t a single living soul who sees that poll in their inbox and thinks, “Oh! I gotta stop what I’m doing, the new FMS is out.”)

As you can see, self-reported cash levels now sit at just 3.9%, among the lowest readings ever. If you’re familiar with BofA’s trading “rules” (they’re not “rules” in any literal or strict sense), you know that’s a contrarian “sell” signal.

Editorializing around the survey results, Michael Hartnett reminded clients that the median four-week S&P 500 loss following 17 such historical sell signals looking back to 2011 is -2%. The largest of such losses was 29%, while the largest post-sell signal gain was 3%. That gives you a sense of the asymmetry.

He was also keen to point out that this marks the second BofA sell signal in a week. The bank’s “Global Flow Trading Rule” (it’s based on inflows to stocks and junk bonds) triggered a few days ago for the first time in a nearly a year. The median return for global equities post-those triggers is -2.4% over the ensuing four weeks.

Before you jump out of any windows, note that positioning’s nowhere near extreme. The chart below suggests portfolios are just now back to being Overweight equities after three months in net Underweight territory.

At just 2%, panelists’ equity allocation is nearly a standard deviation below average.

So, all “rules” and “triggers” aside, the missing ingredient for a contrarian bear case is a over-allocation to stocks on the part of professional discretionary investors.

For what it’s worth, Goldman’s composite positioning metric tells a similar story. The bank’s Sentiment Indicator (shown below) sits in just the 43%ile looking back 15 years.

As a reminder, that metric rolls up nine measures of institutional, foreign and retail investor positioning. It hasn’t been in positive territory since February.

“Moderate equity investor positioning argues against the notion that the current market multiple is indicative of investor exuberance,” the bank’s David Kostin remarked.

Coming full circle, the answer to all the questions posed here at the outset is “maybe.” And also, “Who cares?”


 

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9 thoughts on “Burning Questions

  1. Well, it is “another breathtakingly beautiful summer afternoon” in Colorado, but I’m also pretending to care about whether SPX 6300 was the near-term top” at the moment…as it’s kinda hot out so I’m burning hydrocarbons & photons to contribute further to global warming by adding yet more CO2 to the atmosphere with my AC running, and waiting until well after market-close to go outside and enjoy the beauty on my mountain bike….so, thanks for the commentary!

    1. At a minimum, make sure you have the cash to get through next 12-24 months. On the other hand, what political party hasn’t “juiced” the system going into midterms, when they can?

  2. A dividend stream coming in might shrink a little from time to time, but usually not, and it grows if an investor ignores the hoopla and just stays the course. Took me a long time to learn that.

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