Quick: What’s the most crowded trade on the planet?

This is an easy one. You should know this.

Give up? It’s “short USD,” and although some on Wall Street are still reluctant to say this out loud, the reason for widespread skepticism around the greenback is Donald Trump and everything to do with him.

Just ask the three dozen reserve managers polled recently by UBS. If you missed my editorial on that survey, here’s the chart again:

Those are the concerns of foreign central banks. Do note the bit in parentheses: “…in a way that would influence your asset allocation significantly.” If any of those risks were to materialize (and some already have), reserve managers around the world would reconsider their allocation to the USD.

That’s the big picture. Zooming in, many analysts expect additional near- to medium-term dollar weakness due to, among other concerns, the twin deficit dilemma, increased hedging of foreign US equity holdings and narrower growth and rate differentials as the US economy slows and the Fed starts to cut.

With all of that in mind, “short USD” topped the “most crowded” trade list in BofA’s monthly fund manager poll for the first time in history.

As the figure shows, 34% identified dollar bearishness as the most consensus call. “Long gold” dropped to the number three spot behind big US tech longs.

At the same time, just a third of panelists said they’re looking to increase their hedges against a weaker dollar, down from 39% in June and 40% in May. Perhaps some are now of the mind that the dollar, having fallen 10% in 2025, is poised to stabilize. Indeed, the DXY’s off the YTD lows.

In the same BofA poll, investors were the most bullish on the euro in more than 20 years as proxied by net positioning.