Early Tuesday, while editorializing around Goldman’s new year-end S&P target, I wrote that other house calls on the benchmark were very likely to be revised higher given the rally back to records.

House S&P calls are just a mark-to-market game. When the facts (i.e., spot equities) change, you change your forecast. For that, you make half a million dollars a year. It’s good work if you can get it.

Sure enough, just 12 hours after David Kostin lifted his target, BofA’s Savita Subramanian raised hers in what she called a “mea culpa” for underestimating corporate America.

The chart above says it all: Policy uncertainty’s never been higher, and yet earnings uncertainty, as proxied by EPS forecast dispersion, is just 30%ile in the post-COVID era, even as it’s elevated versus the pre-pandemic average.

Subramanian credited “the resiliency of large public companies in the face of macro uncertainty” for a lower ERP assumption. That, she noted, more than offset BofA’s “higher normalized rates assumption” (which the bank somewhat ominously attributes to “persistent sovereign risk”) for the purposes of the house year-end SPX call, which is now 6300, up from 5600. Subramanian sees the benchmark rising to 6600 in 12 months.

“Policy uncertainty is near all-time highs and sovereign yields are at multi-decade highs, but corporate transparency has remained intact,” Subramanian said Tuesday. “Volatility in currency, inflation and rates have failed to rattle S&P 500 margins since COVID,” she went on, noting that corporates “either adapted or dropped out of the index.”

There you go. As I put it Sunday, “one way or another, corporate America always wins.”