Equity investors, for better or worse, have stopped listening to Donald Trump’s tariff threats.

The simple explanation says market participants are desensitized. If that’s true, you can’t blame them. Markets, I mean. It’s not just an “every day” thing with Trump and the tariff bombast, it’s an every hour thing.

Keeping up with his social media feed’s a full-time job. Literally. There are people in the media whose job it is to do just that. Pray for their sanity.

US tariff policy as written and disseminated in real-time on TruthSocial is in constant flux. There’s no way to invest based on tariff news flow, so people gave up trying. Have a look:

That simple chart, from Goldman’s David Kostin, shows both the S&P 500 and a Goldman basket of tariff-sensitive equities in and around “major tariff announcements” (as distinct, I suppose, from the minor tariff announcements Trump makes all day, every day).

The point: No one cares anymore. Or perhaps more accurately, even if people do care, they’ve come to believe that selling stocks based on a given tariff escalation isn’t worth the trouble because by the time you click “sell,” Trump might’ve clicked “send” on some new tariff tweet (or tariff “truth”).

“US equities have largely ignored the most recent tariff announcements,” Kostin wrote, in his latest, noting that Goldman’s “Tariff Risk basket” came into this week a mere 4% off its highs. (Read that last part again. Then allow yourself a wry, incredulous chuckle.) “Our client conversations indicate that many investors believe tariff rates will eventually settle lower than what the recent announcements have indicated,” he went on.

Whether that’s a safe bet is anyone’s guess. I’m obliged to remind readers that despite a series of ostensible “folds” to the market, Trump’s still managed to ratchet the average US tariff rate into the double-digits since taking office.

The figure above also shows Goldman’s house forecasts for where the tariff rate will eventually “settle” (and that seems like a misnomer for a line that’s seen rising continually). 19% in 2027 would be nearly 7x the end-2024 level.

I, uh, don’t understand how it’s possible for corporate America — hell, for the world in general — to transition from a sub-3% average tariff rate applicable to goods imported by the world’s largest consumer market to a rate near 20% in the short space of two years without serious adverse consequences, but… well, I’m like everyone else in that I’ve been wrong about Trump before. (Where I’m unlike everyone else is in understanding that admitting as much isn’t the same as praising the man.)

That’s not to say US equity prices can’t move higher regardless, which is to say even if tariffs end up eroding margins. Multiple expansion’s alive and well, after all. If the next guy (or machine) will pay more for every dollar of earnings than you paid, slower earnings growth isn’t necessarily a big deal. God knows the world’s full of greater fools.