I’m going to dwell, for another beat, on the fundamentals. How quaint, right?
First thing Monday, I highlighted corporate top-line results, which’ve come in better than expected around three-quarters of the time so far this reporting season.
For the plurality of readers who’re here for the humor, the geopolitics and the autobiographical narration, that’s a boring statistic. But for the Joe Fridays among you — “Just the markets, man” — it’s notable.
If we’re transitioning from an environment where companies are leaning on margin expansion — i.e., squeezing more profit from every dollar of sales — to impress or keep up appearances on the bottom line, to an environment where sales growth shoulders more of that burden, that’s a meaningful phase shift.
The jury’s still out on that, and will be for a while, but in the meantime, analysts are turning increasing positive about the US profit picture, and with good reason apparently. The figure on the right, below, shows that 84% of companies have beat on the bottom line in Q2 results, the highest share in years.
I’ve mentioned the inflection in EPS revisions on several occasions recently, and I’ll do it again today as we await this week’s tsunami of macro-market news that’ll come ashore beginning Tuesday. The figure on the left, above, shows the the EPS revision ratio now sits at its most optimistic levels in three years, indicative of 14 upgrades for every 10 downgrades.
The S&P 500, SocGen’s Manish Kabra remarked, recycling a familiar talking point, has “led global revisions for 10 weeks.” Reported EPS, he went on, “is at a two-year high versus other benchmarks, such as European stocks.”
Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson (remember Mike?) likewise flagged the sharp upturn in analyst sentiment, illustrated on the left, below.
“The rebound in earnings revisions breadth remains the most important driver of stocks, overriding tariff and economic concerns,” Wilson remarked.
The figure on the right from Wilson shows that, in his words, “the median company has been in a recession for three years.” That speaks to the “haves”/”have-nots” divide, but also, according to Mike’s narrative anyway, to the previous administration’s policy mix.
The good news, Wilson said, is that “earnings growth looks better now for next year,” when participation should be broader on “less crowding out, lower rates and a rolling recovery.”




Oh yeah Mike, they guy who was thisclose to being a Marko.