To say the US macro-market docket will be “busy” in the days ahead would be an understatement, and not a small one.

Every so often, the stars align such that a Fed meeting, crucial quarterly macro updates, monthly jobs data and big-tech earnings are scheduled for the same week. This is one of those weeks. Throw in a tariff deadline and Treasury’s quarterly refunding and you have the busiest week of 2025 so far, hands down.

On the data front, the July jobs report’s the marquee event, although the advance read on Q2 GDP will be closely eyed as well. Economists are looking for 110,000 or so from the NFP headline. That’d be a deceleration from the prior month’s pace, but considering the circumstances, a consensus print would probably count as a relief.

Naively assuming an in-line readout and no revisions, the three-month average would move down to 133,000, “fine” all things considered.

Nuance is key, though. The headline pace of hiring’s less important at this juncture than the breakdown — the “under the hood” details, so to speak. June’s ostensibly decent NFP print belied weak private sector hiring. That’ll be the focus again in the July release. Put as a question: Is the private sector adding jobs at a respectable rate or are we relying on state and local government hiring?

That question will become more (or less) urgent depending on Wednesday’s ADP headline. In June, ADP said private hiring actually contracted in the US. Other than spring/summer 2020 (i.e., the onset of the pandemic), there are basically no examples of back-to-back negative ADP prints in the reconstituted series, which goes back to 2010. Consensus expects an 80,000 gain from July’s ADP headline.

The first estimate of Q2 GDP’s due 15 minutes after the ADP release. It’ll likely show a snapback from the trade-driven contraction in Q1, when imports were an enormous drag (see the figure below). Economists expect 2.4% from the GDP headline.

The market will focus on the personal consumption component in the release. Recall that as initially reported, the personal spending impulse in Q1 was a reasonably healthy 1.8%. By the third and final estimate, it was just 0.5%. It better be stronger than that in Wednesday’s advance read for Q2.

Although the market will technically already have June’s PCE figures (they’re in the GDP tally) by the time they’re released on Thursday, the monthly breakout will be parsed all the same. Questions include: How strong (or not) was real spending in June? What’s the goods/services split look like in terms of the inflation impulse on the Fed’s preferred measure?

In addition to the jobs report, ADP, GDP and June’s PCE release, traders will get, in order of importance, ISM manufacturing (Friday), JOLTS (Tuesday), Conference Board confidence (Tuesday), claims (Thursday), ECI (Thursday), the final read on Michigan sentiment for July (Friday), pending home sales (Wednesday) and Case-Shiller (Tuesday).

And that’s just the macro. On the earnings front, Meta and Microsoft report on Wednesday while Apple and Amazon will deliver results after the bell on Thursday.

In case all that’s not enough, rates (bonds) will also need to grapple with Treasury’s borrowing estimate (Monday) and the quarterly refunding details (Wednesday). The focus in the QRA will probably be buybacks, and specifically market expectations for more of them from Scott Bessent. Suffice to say long-end stability shouldn’t be taken for granted right now. Whatever the market’s expecting both in terms of increased buybacks and the language employed in the forward guidance on coupon auction sizes, is exactly what Bessent should deliver. No surprises, Scott.

As far as the tariff deadline on Friday, the market cared first and foremost about a deal with Europe. Everything else on the trade front was a side show pending clarity on the US-EU bilateral relationship. On Sunday, after meeting with Ursula von der Leyen in Scotland, Donald Trump announced a provisional deal that sets the tariff rate on most EU trade at 15%, half the threatened rate.

The Fed meeting will be a hold. I think. And if it is, Chris Waller and Miki Bowman may dissent. You can read my full July FOMC preview here.