“It was the best we could get.”
So said Ursula von der Leyen on Sunday, describing the 15% tax rate applicable to EU exports bound for the US after August 1.
The arrangement, details of which were predictably sparse, defuses a tense situation days ahead of Donald Trump’s deadline. If there was a fly in the rally soup, it was the prospect of a “no deal” outcome following two months of US-EU tariff negotiations which at times turned acrimonious.
Trump now has trade understandings with both Brussels and Tokyo. Nebulous though the arrangements surely are, the mere fact that two of America’s main international allies were able to negotiate for what, in the context of “Trump 2.0,” counts as a favorable tariff rate, will likely be viewed by markets as bullish.
Von der Leyen indicated that for now, pharmaceuticals will fall into the 15% bucket, pending Trump’s decision on a sector-specific rate that’ll eventually apply to all US drug imports, regardless of origin. For his part, Trump said the 15% negotiated rate will apply to cars “and everything else” except metals.
Apparently, Brussels promised to invest $600 billion in America and buy three-quarters of a trillion in US energy as part of the deal. In exchange for those pledges, Trump agreed to tax pharmaceuticals and chips at the same 15% rate as “everything else” (to use his language), again with the exception of steel and aluminum. Trump extracted a similar pledge from the Japanese last week.
My guess is that specifics of the promised EU investment were left to a later date, which is to say there are no specifics and there’s probably no definitive timetable either. As far as the energy buying’s concerned, that’s mutually beneficial, so I doubt it was an especially hard sell for Trump. The same’s true of the “vast amounts” (as he put it) of defense hardware Europe will buy from US contractors.
The rest of the particulars, to the extent there were any, are scarcely worth mentioning. Nobody cares. Because nobody believes these arrangements are anything more than nebulous promises made to sate Trump’s vanity. That’s not to suggest nothing at all will come of these arrangements, it’s just to state the obvious: All markets care about in the here and now is that Trump’s not putting embargo-level tariffs on major US trading partners.
Speaking of countries which (however briefly) were subjected to a de facto embargo, China will reportedly get (or maybe it’s more accurate to say Beijing demanded) another three months to work out acceptable terms with Trump. That’s according SCMP, which on Sunday said the 90-day truce which expires next month will be extended. “Despite the expected extension, trade talks are unlikely to yield breakthroughs on specific issues,” the paper said, citing people familiar with the discussions.
Commenting Sunday from Turnberry, where he met with von der Leyen, Trump called the understanding with Europe “the biggest of all the deals.” Von der Leyen played along. “Together, the EU and the US are a market of 800 million people and nearly 44% of global GDP,” she told the press. “It’s the biggest trade deal ever.”
“Just go golfing with him and tell him what he wants to hear,” Shinzo Abe said, nodding approvingly from the great beyond. “It’s not rocket science.”


Great quote from Abe!
Biggest beautiful trade deal ever ever.
H-Man, every deal that he has supposedly inked with tariffs is a non-deal. It is more like a picture op/ed with no details – information to be disclosed at a later date.