It’s probably fair to say US soft landing odds increased materially over the past several
Category: Markets
Fed ‘Way Behind The Easing Curve,’ Albert Edwards Says
It’s time for the Fed to cut rates. Past time, even. So said SocGen’s Albert
Fed Tips One 2024 Cut, Four 2025 Cuts, Higher Neutral Rate
The Fed kept rates on hold for a seventh meeting Wednesday and tipped just one
Kolanovic Sees ‘Plethora’ Of Risks For Buoyant Stocks
If you were wondering, JPMorgan’s cross-asset strategy team is still cautious on equities. That probably
Market’s Mexico Concerns Mount As Sheinbaum Pushes Judicial Reform
A week on from Morena’s landslide victory in Mexico’s largest-ever election, Claudia Sheinbaum’s still shaking
The Stocks Will Be Fine, Americans Reckon
The stocks will be fine. If the whole world burns — I don’t know why
When Everyone Says It’s Not A Bubble…
“You know it’s a bubble when everyone starts telling you it’s not a bubble.” That’s
Sorry, Cam Harvey
Way back two weeks ago, I took a few minutes to editorialize around what I
Good, Bad And Everything In-Between
It was the same story on Thursday, when US equities meandered ahead of payrolls: Bad
Siren Songs Of Summer
“S&P 500 heads for record close as Nvidia soars, investors look for rate cuts,” read
Dead Canary
I don’t want to overstate the significance of any one data point or US macro
Kolanovic: This Time’s Probably Not Different
JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic is… I don’t know, still bearish. Or still cautious. Not especially constructive.
Is An Equities Vol Regime Shift In The Offing?
Don’t look now, but there’s a regime shift afoot in the equities index vol space.
Wall Street Ignores The Only US Election Risks That Matter
On May 28, Goldman published a note called “The US Election — Debating the Asset
I Was Told There Would Be Rate Cuts
We’ve come a long way since late November. Six whole months, in fact. Half a
Fed Suggests More Talking To Solve Communication Problem
I regularly lament the Fed’s penchant for over-communication. Every week, market participants are compelled to
Did Yellen and Powell Forget Piketty?
When it comes to the notion that Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell engaged in a
Inconclusive
I doubt anyone came away from this week wiser. By Friday afternoon in the US,
Rally Interrupted And The Forever Inversion
A four-week global equity rally faltered this week amid concerns around delayed Fed cuts. MSCI’s
Don’t Blame Nvidia
“It’s the economy, stupid.” If you’re determined to explain why US equities didn’t revel in
Nvidia Rides ‘Next Industrial Revolution’ To Another Big Beat
A year on from what history may remember as an epoch-making earnings report, the most
The Macro-Policy Path To SPX 6350
Everybody knows what could go wrong, right? If not, allow me. Monetary policy’s “long and
‘Something Far More Convex’
Hopefully, most readers can recite some version of the flat skew narrative from memory by
Nosebleed Risk Appetite May Impose ‘Speed Limit’ On Stocks: Goldman
“Maybe.” “Might.” “Possibly.” “Could.” And especially “in our view.” Every sell-side research note contains one
Stocks Could Soar, Might Plunge, Will Probably Stay Put: Wilson
If you ask me, the most interesting aspect of Mike Wilson’s 48-page mid-year US equities
Breaking Bear News…
I’m supposed to make a big deal out of Mike Wilson’s new price target for
Fate Of The World, Weight Of The Rally Rests With Nvidia
A dearth of top-tier US data releases and the proximity of Memorial Day could make
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