A lot of ad hoc musings here cobbled together and submitted for your approval.
Category: Markets
Dalio In Davos: Ray Delivers Fresh Set Of Possibly Profound Prognostications
“…the next downturn in the economy worries me the most.”
‘We’ve Squeezed The Max Amount Of Blood From The Stone’: Why Nomura’s McElligott Sees A ‘Re-Correction’
“I see scope for Spooz to revisit 2525 level over the next two weeks.”
The Thrill May Be Gone.
The good mood has seemingly worn off.
IMF Yells At Clouds Again, Cuts Global Growth Forecasts Citing Reckless Trade Policies
Somehow, I doubt anyone cares too much about this, but for what it’s worth…
‘Stabilization’? Analysts Weigh In As China’s Economy Slows To Crisis-Era Pace
It would be odd to characterize an uninspiring set of numbers as “Goldilocks”, but…
Recession Obsession: What Causes Downturns And How Vulnerable Is The US?
“Recession obsession” has become a fixture of markets over the past three months…
China Is About To Report The Slowest Growth In 28 Years – Who’s Excited?
This will be a true test of whether bad news really is “good” news.
Here’s An Hour-Long Interview With Nomura’s Charlie McElligott
“…what is important to note here are a number of things.”
Revisiting The Subverted Perspective: Normalization Parallax
“…the reality which they experience is never fully complete, not because a large part of it eludes them, but because the entire configuration contains a ‘blind spot’.”
‘Mean Aversion’: Why Grantham’s GMO Thinks The US Stock Bubble Is Bursting
“…our advice, consistent with our portfolio positions, is to continue to own as little U.S. equity as career risk allows.”
Wars Of Attrition.
“…over time the cumulative cost can become very high.”
A Two-Front War, Tariff Headline Hockey And The Updated ‘SG Swan Chart’
The bottom line is that Trump has predictably boxed himself in.
‘The Worst Is Yet To Come’: As Federal Workers Tap Retirement Funds, Confidence In Economy Collapses
For the GOP, this is an existential crisis.
Mad Greeks.
“However, a move down through 2575 in SPX”…
Morgan Stanley Delivers Epic Faceplant, FICC Plunges 30%
Juuust a bit outside.
Apple’s Main Chipmaker Delivers Dour Outlook, Underscoring Smartphone Worries, Growth Concerns
In case you needed any more evidence…
‘Good’ Trump Isn’t Coming Back, Get Used To ‘Bad’ Trump, One Bank Warns
“The author does not believe markets will come back to the ‘good’ Trump story anytime soon.”
Marko Kolanovic Explains The ‘Liquidity-Volatility-Flows Feedback Loop’
“… at times of high volatility, the VIX is almost the sole driver of market
liquidity.”
Narrative Check: Brexit, Trump, China Stimulus And An Update On Charlie’s CTA Model
Ok, it’s time for “narrative” check – as it were.
Goldman Beats, Market Happy With Advisory Blowout Despite FICC Fail
Lots to digest here, but it looks like the knee-jerk is to “buy”.
Bank Of America Surges As Market Ignores Latest FICC Miss
Benefit of the doubt?
Sophia Don’t Fail Me Now: One Bank Worries ‘Algo Rally’ Will ‘Run Out Of Steam’
Who knows – maybe ask Sophia.
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