“In that environment, convexity withdrawal creates a reinforcing loop where more turbulence in risk assets tends to cause stability in fixed income.”
Category: fed
‘America First’: Full Week Ahead Preview
Ok, well all eyes will be on the U.S. in the week ahead.
Why Goldman Thinks The Fed Isn’t Even Halfway There
“And there is still little evidence that the committee is close to the halfway mark from this perspective.”
Why This Is ‘A More Painful Rate Shock’
Listen, you people are concerned about 10Y yields, and that’s fine. After all, we blew threw the February highs this week on the way to the “dreaded” 3% “pain threshold” and while there were no swarms of locusts and no Pazuzu sightings (that I’m aware of), there are still concerns that the higher we go, the closer we get to a situation characterized by “diversification desperation” or, more simply, a scenario where bonds and stocks selloff in tandem.
Nasty Places.
We gotta get out of this place.
‘We Got No More Liquor!’ These Yield Curve Inversion As A Recession Predictor Probabilities Are Sure To Be A Hit At The Bar
If you’re not talking about the inexorable flattening in the U.S. curve in public settings, well then one wonders what the hell it is you’re saying at the bar when you’re spittin’ game to the waitresses.Â
Behold: An ‘Incubator For Vicious Steepeners’
Something tells us this is an underappreciated tail risk, indeed.
David Stockman: It’s A Matter Of Time Before Trump Attacks The Fed
“Indeed, the Donald’s impending attack on the purported sacred ‘independence’ of the Fed is the Orange Swan that looms over the casino.”
Inner And Outer Limits: Resolving An Inconsistency And What It Means For Risk
An “optimal control problem.”
‘Keep The Change, You Filthy Animal’
“Get ready.”
Fed Minutes: ‘Trade War Is A Downside Risk’
STRONG MAJORITY OF FED OFFICIALS SAW TRADE WAR AS DOWNSIDE RISK
FED SEES `SIGNIFICANT’ FISCAL-POLICY GROWTH BOOST NEXT FEW YRS
A NUMBER FED OFFICIALS SAW OUTLOOK WARRANTING STEEPER RATE PATH
Trader: Here’s My Beef With Jamie Dimon’s Annual Letter
“What happened each time the Fed stopped QE? Yields fell. The complete opposite of what Jamie would predict.”
Janet Yellen Warns Of ‘Debt Crisis’, Blasts Trump Tax Cuts In Op-Ed
“The U.S. unemployment rate is down to 4.1 percent, and economic growth could well increase in 2018. Consumer and business confidence is high. What could go wrong?”
War And (No) Peace: Full Week Ahead Preview
Say your prayers.
Stocks And The ‘Restriking Of The Fed Put’
“In our view, Fed put is currently moving deeper out of the money. This is effectively a withdrawal of convexity and risk assets are reacting with what at the moment appears as a reinforcing loop.”
The 3 ‘T’s: Full Week Ahead Preview
In essence, the same things everyone was watching last week (e.g. tech, trade, Trump) will be in focus again…
Albert Edwards Wants To Know If ‘Your Nostrils Are Filling With A Sticky Aroma’
“If you want to blame someone, blame the Fed. And I am sure that is exactly what President Trump will do when he loses patience and moves to remove their independent status.”
David Stockman: That ‘Unicorn’ Isn’t Real
“The single most important price in all of capitalism is the interest rate—-and at all points on the maturity curve. And the single most important truth about honest interest rates is that they must be discovered by markets, not imposed by the state.”
Objectively Crazy.
Yep. Batshit.
Here’s What Wall Street Thinks About The Fed And Jerome Powell’s Debut
Well, the reviews are in on the Fed decision, the SEP, the dots and on Jerome Powell’s “plain speak” presser debut.
Breaker One-Niner
The market’s verdict was as follows.
Powell Don’t Talk Much Like Yellen – Jury Still Out On Whether That’s Good Or Bad
I’m sorry, but I’m not sure doublespeak and bluntness are going to be compatible forever.
Fed Signals 2 More Hikes In 2018: Dot Plot, Projections, Statement, Analysis
FED RAISES RATES QUARTER POINT, SIGNALS TWO MORE HIKES IN 2018
FED ESTIMATES SHOW STEEPER PATH FOR RATE INCREASES IN 2019-20
FED SAYS `ECONOMIC OUTLOOK HAS STRENGTHENED IN RECENT MONTHS’
FED REPEATS NEAR-TERM RISKS `APPEAR ROUGHLY BALANCED’
One Bank Says A Dovish Fed Is Going To ‘Place A Floor Under The Stock Market’
So you know, “fingers crossed” I guess if you’re long.Â
A Couple Of Thoughts On The Fed’s Growth Outlook
Here are my off-the-cuff thoughts on that as sent around to a couple of people this morning (and again, these are just my musings and should be treated as such).
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