10Y fed fomc jerome powell

Why Goldman Thinks The Fed Isn’t Even Halfway There

"And there is still little evidence that the committee is close to the halfway mark from this perspective."

"And there is still little evidence that the committee is close to the halfway mark from this perspective."
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2 comments on “Why Goldman Thinks The Fed Isn’t Even Halfway There

  1. “We’ve argued repeatedly over the past week (see here, for instance) that
    the obsession with the 3% threshold is to a certain extent absurd ”

    Yes. There should be more concern about short-term rates jumping, such as the 2’s mentioned in this post.

    Rising short-term rates crushes the profitability of banks and bank like financials who borrow short and lend long.

    Plus much more household and government debt is tied to shorter rates (tho lately gov’t has been trying to extend duration). Stats show household and corporate credit growth falling, probably in response to higher rates on the short end of the curve. If it continues it becomes an early recession indicator approximately on par with an inverting yield curve for reliability as a signal.

  2. But don’t forget that Trump “likes low interest rates” and is in a position to stack the Fed with his choices.

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