The Chinese recovery narrative, easily among the worst macro calls of 2023 so far, was
Category: economy
Doing All Right. Maybe.
The marquee gauge of US factory activity missed estimates in data released Monday, but underlying
Jobs And Fireworks
It’s a holiday week in the US, but it’s also jobs week. So, anyone who
The Macro Implications Of The Student Loan Decision
If you’re wondering what the Supreme Court’s decision to nix Joe Biden’s student debt relief
Fed Gets Good News In Critical Spending, Inflation Update
Markets and policymakers were handed what looked, on the surface anyway, like a Goldilocks US
Bad Optics: Core, Services Inflation Rise In Europe As ECB Leans In
Headline European inflation receded in June to the slowest 12-month pace since January of 2022,
Hot US Economy Stuns Again With Big GDP Revision, Plunging Claims
Thursday brought still more evidence of US economic resilience in the face of an ostensibly
Waiting Game
For the second straight day, Jerome Powell spoke in Europe about the outlook for US
‘The Recession That Refused To Realize’
Over the last several days, the US economy once again demonstrated a remarkable capacity to
Powell Regales Sintra
Jerome Powell regaled the ECB’s annual central banking conference in Sintra on Wednesday. His remarks
New US Home Sales Skyrocket Amid Acute Resale Property Shortage
New US home sales exploded higher in May, underscoring the bifurcated character of America’s hopelessly
US Home Prices See ‘Broad-Based’ Rebound In Potential Problem For Fed
US home prices rose more than expected on a monthly basis at the beginning of
Dorothy And The Frankenstein Cycle
“Toto, I’ve a feeling we’re not in Kansas anymore,” said macro watcher after macro watcher in
Hard Landing, Loose Nukes
Hard landing odds are going up again. That was the narrative early Monday. It’s hard
Another Week In A Broken System
“Some” indicators of inflation are “clearly coming down,” one rates strategist told Bloomberg Television last
Fed Fails To Cool US Services Sector, Risking Prolonged Inflation Battle
US manufacturing is beset, but services activity across the world’s largest economy is resilient. What
European Economy On Brink Of Contraction. Again.
The European economy is stagnating. Again. Preliminary PMIs for June, released on Friday, showed activity
If Only We’d Kept A Pet Monetarist
We should’ve left at least one seat at the table for the monetarists. If we
US Housing Still Plagued By Acute Dearth Of Resale Inventory
Existing home sales in the US continue to be constrained by a lack of resale
Have US Jobless Claims Truly Inflected?
The uptick in US jobless claims appears to be the real deal this time, even
Powell On Parade
One of the enduring amusements of mainstream financial media coverage is the charade whereby known
UK’s Harrowing, EM-Style Spiral Continues
I don’t want to call the situation hopeless, but Wednesday’s inflation update out of the
Homebuilders Moonward As Hammers Fly In Weird US Housing
When you think about the US housing market, it’s useful to start with this simple
America’s Homebuilders Are Feeling A Lot Better
While previewing this week’s sparse collection of scheduled US macro data, I suggested the Fed
The Honorable Mr. Powell
Jerome Powell will head to Capitol Hill this week, where he’ll be interrogated by a
Price Stability? Or The Appearance Thereof?
The Fed, we’ve just learned, is considerably less optimistic about the path of core inflation
Sentiment Upturn, Falling Inflation Outlook Bolster Bulls
Markets were in a good enough mood as it was without an additional piece of
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