If you’re wondering what the Supreme Court’s decision to nix Joe Biden’s student debt relief plan means for the macro outlook, I regret to inform you that it’s impossible to know.

For one thing, Biden will almost surely try something else, probably immediately, and whatever that something is will be aimed at improving the financial prospects of the very same indebted student who would’ve benefited from the debt plan.

In addition, for all the hand-wringing about the purported inflationary impact of the debt forgiveness idea, you can’t “spend” debt forgiveness. You can spend money that would’ve otherwise gone towards debt servicing, but it’s safe to assume Americans who would’ve had some (or all) of their debt forgiven by Biden’s plan were already doing that. After all, the monthly payment moratorium has been in place for ~three years.  So, while disallowing the plan may indeed serve as a drag on consumption, it’s not clear that letting it go forward would’ve materially boosted discretionary spending on, for example, services and inexpensive merchandise.

On the other hand, had the Supreme Court cleared the plan, it might’ve emboldened some would-be homebuyers trying to make the math work to take the plunge. But even there, it’s a bit difficult for me to imagine that monthly payments on $10,000 (or even $20,000) would be the deciding factor on a home purchase for a majority of young couples otherwise ready to buy (note the emphasis). If you don’t assume a very aggressive repayment timeline, payments on a $10,000 personal loan (which is all these are) aren’t large in the context of a mortgage given where home prices and rates are. That may seem counterintuitive: The more punishing the mortgage payment, the more “every little penny counts,” so to speak. But if you’d already lined up a respectable down payment and accepted the reality of a 6.5% mortgage rate (at least until you can refinance), it seems unlikely you were sitting around waiting on Friday’s SCOTUS decision to put in an offer. Over time, relieving that debt might’ve helped borrowers who weren’t ready save for a down payment, but 2026’s starter home purchases aren’t inflationary in 2023.

Anyway, the point is: I’m open to the idea that had the plan gone forward, it would’ve been inflationary at the margins, if only because most of us were wrong-footed so badly on inflation in 2021. But I don’t think the impact of Biden’s plan was going to be as straightforward as critics appeared to assume. Forgiving $10,000 in debt isn’t the same as sending someone a $10,000 check. It’s just not. On any level, including on a psychological level.

More important, probably, is the impact of the resumption of payments starting in a few months. That was guaranteed for many borrowers irrespective of the court’s decision and it’s going to happen regardless of what Biden does next. “In theory, the administration could seek to implement a new policy citing a new justification, but this seems unlikely — transitional assistance to borrowers as payments are reinstated is more plausible,” Goldman’s Alec Phillips and Tim Krupa said.

The figure above suggests that a return to trend for payments in Q4 would amount to around $70 billion, or 0.3% of GDP at an annualized rate. As you can see, the Biden plan would’ve mitigated that, but… well, no need to litigate that here (get it?).

Phillips and Krupa went on to sketch the contours of a prospective income-based payment option that could “substantially reduce monthly payments for lower- and middle-income borrowers” and ultimately see any remaining balances forgiven in a decade or two. But one issue for the White House when it comes to any plan that doesn’t entail outright debt forgiveness is that Americans sometimes don’t avail themselves of government assistance because they don’t understand who qualifies, what the parameters are, who to call (or what website to visit) to sign up and so on. Goldman alluded to such challenges.

“A key question will be whether borrowers take advantage of [any new plan] as many have failed to enroll in existing plans that would benefit them financially,” the bank said. “Regardless, it seems likely that the administration will find a way to implement some type of student loan payment relief by 2024, though it is likely to have a smaller impact on monthly payments than the pause that is set to end soon.”

One way or another, the resumption of payments will be a drag and a de facto withdrawal of liquidity in Q4. In the context of the inflation fight, that may not be the worst thing in the world. But, again, I feel compelled to be as generous as possible in this discussion, where that means acknowledging that the least Congress can do for the people who put them in the Capitol is make an effort to address structural problems so they (the problems) don’t have to be adjudicated by the executive and the Supreme Court. That goes for student debt, and it goes for immigration and it goes for all kinds of other issues besides.