Fed Gets Good News In Critical Spending, Inflation Update

Markets and policymakers were handed what looked, on the surface anyway, like a Goldilocks US personal income and spending report on Friday.

The data, released ahead of what might as well be a holiday weekend, showed nominal consumption rose 0.1% in May from the prior month, while real personal spending was flat. Consensus expected a 0.2% increase on the headline spending print and a slight uptick in real spending.

The figures came as something of a relief following a sharp upward revision to the personal consumption component of Q1 GDP. Robust spending would be a good thing if inflation weren’t still running more than double target across the world’s largest economy.

Notably, spending figures for April were revised lower which, again considering the inflation backdrop, could be construed as good news.

Spending on goods fell $33 billion, while services spending rose $52 billion in May, paced by healthcare and transportation services.

On the inflation side, a 0.3% MoM read on core PCE was a “We’ll take it” moment for the Fed. It was in line with consensus and could’ve been worse.

The headline gauge rose 0.1% from April, matching estimates.

The core services ex-housing gauge the Fed is watching intently (read: anxiously) for evidence of lower underlying trend inflation rose 0.23%, the least in nearly a year.

Obviously, YoY core inflation is still far too high at 4.6%, but headline PCE is now down to “just” 3.8%. There’s no guarantee the downward trajectory will continue in perpetuity, nor was there anything in Friday’s data to change the narrative around July’s FOMC meeting. The Fed will almost surely be hiking again, barring some sort of disaster in June payrolls.

Nevertheless, if the glass half-full crowd was looking for confirmation bias, Friday’s figures arguably obliged. Personal incomes rose 0.4%, more than anticipated, and the saving rate moved up to 4.6%.


 

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

2 thoughts on “Fed Gets Good News In Critical Spending, Inflation Update

  1. I agree with you here on your read. Fed will go 1/4% in july. With disinflation intact, there is a very strong chance that will be the last hike, despite hawkish commentary by powell at sintra.
    As inflation gradually recedes, real rates go up as long as the fomc stands pat.

Create a free account or log in

Gain access to read this article

Yes, I would like to receive new content and updates.

10th Anniversary Boutique

Coming Soon