The uptick in US jobless claims appears to be the real deal this time, even if it’s not a big deal just yet.

Initial claims were elevated for a third consecutive week, Thursday’s update showed.

At 264,000, claims were unchanged again (from an upwardly revised prior week). They were also ahead of consensus, which was looking for 259,000.

The four-week moving average is now up to 255,750, the highest since November of 2021. Unadjusted claims fell slightly, to 250,000. Continuing claims were softer than expected for the week to June 10.

It’s worth briefly recapitulating. Three weeks ago, claims abruptly jumped by the most since July of 2021, taking the headline print to the highest since October of that year. The next week, claims remained stuck at the same 20-month highs. Now we’re on week number three.

To be sure, this is nothing to write home about just yet (unless you’re young, among the newly-jobless and now need to move back home). But it’s certainly something that needs monitoring. There are a handful of smart commentators who insist that claims will eventually rise sharply, and without much warning, unless you count the WARN notices those observers are fond of citing to make the case.

From the perspective of a market pondering the Fed’s seriousness vis-à-vis the “threatening” (policymakers wouldn’t use that word) June dot plot, evidence of a looser labor market, even at the margins, is good news.

“Overall, the data was mixed and leaves open the question whether the underlying trajectory of the labor market has turned,” BMO’s Ian Lyngen said Thursday. “That said, 264,000 claims is still low in outright terms — even if it is for NFP-survey week.”