Jerome Powell will head to Capitol Hill this week, where he’ll be interrogated by a group of people whose approval rating has averaged 20% for the better part of two decades, according to Gallup.

Not that Powell’s an especially popular guy either. He owns the worst approval rating of any Fed chair in the (relatively short) history of Gallup’s polling, and not necessarily because inflation is too high. That’s part of it, but the real problem is America’s obsession with grievance politics, paranoia and resentment. Voters are instinctually inclined to disapprove of anyone and anything, unless the question is about their guy (or gal), in which case they treat serious public opinion polls like telephone customer service feedback surveys. (“Please rate the representative on a scale of one to five, one being ‘not satisfied,’ five being ‘very satisfied.’ Let’s get started. The representative listened to my questi…” “Fiiiiiiive.” “The representative was knowledg….” “Fiiiiiive” “How many times have you called to discuss this issue with us? Please select one, two, thr…” “Ooooone.” “Thank you, goodbye.”)

Powell will chat with the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday and the Senate Banking Committee Thursday. I’ll save you the suspense. Democrats will say the Fed’s rate hikes risk “throwing millions of Americans out of work” and every Republican will say something along the lines of, “Mr. Powell, You’ve said before that our nation’s fiscal path is unsustainable. Do you still believe that today and if so, don’t we need to be doing more about it?” And also, “Mr. Powell, Two years ago, a number of economists warned that this administration’s reckless, unnecessary stimulus plan would lead to out-of-control inflation. You and your colleagues have raised interest rates over and over and over again, but it doesn’t seem to be doing a whole lot of good. Is it or is it not the case that this administration’s policies are part of the problem?” Then back to Democrats. “Mr. Powell, Do you have any idea how many Americans lose a job when the unemployment rate rises from 3.5% to 3.9%?” “Senator, I don’t — No, I don’t have that numb…” “850 million, Mr. Powell. 850 million people who are going to starve for your rate hikes.” “Senator, I don’t think that’s accurate, bu–”

Over two days, America will waste at least four hours, and probably quite a bit more, on that hopelessly politicized charade. Aside from Powell’s tie color and a smattering of SVB questions, this week’s proceedings will be virtually indistinguishable from every other Powell Capitol Hill double feature. Traders will listen (where that means watch red heds on the terminal) for any hints on how serious the Fed is about the new dot plot, which was faded by rates and summarily ignored by equities.

A few enterprising lawmakers will doubtlessly attempt to weigh in on last week’s “pause.” Hopefully, staff will inform them ahead of time that “hawkish skip” isn’t a military maneuver or a chess move. It’s just gibberish. Powell should lean into it for his own amusement, though. “Well, Senator, I’m glad you asked. I wasn’t going to get into the specifics, but econometrics tells us that a ‘hawkish skip’ is a prelude to an ‘owlish pirouette’ which, when you incorporate Okun’s law, the Sahm Rule and a velocity-addition formula, everywhere and always produces what economists call a curious pheasant.”

I can assure you that market participants will come away no wiser from Powell’s testimony, and the same goes for the rest of this week’s Fed speakers, who include Barkin, Bowman, Bullard, Goolsbee, Mester, Waller and Williams.

I should note that the Fed has succeeded in squeezing out most of the rate cut pricing for the back half of the year, which is a victory of sorts. What you’re looking at in the figure below is the dramatic re-steepening from the post-SVB lows.

I’d argue it’s more important to hold terminal through year-end than it is to achieve a higher peak. Except, perhaps, in the eyes of the Committee’s staunchest hawks (at least two of whom were previously among the Fed’s most outspoken doves), holding at ~5% for the remainder of 2023 would count as a win.

The data calendar in the US is very sparse this week, but does include the first of this month’s housing figures (covering May’s activity). The Fed should be on alert for evidence that housing is picking up again, and indeed Powell was queried last week on whether the Committee might need to take actions aimed at cooling the market if animal spirits start stirring anew. He politely sidestepped the question, but it may be unavoidable by the end of the summer. Existing home sales are due Thursday.

Also on deck: Starts and permits on Tuesday and the preliminary read on S&P Global’s PMI’s Friday. Claims on Thursday will be eyed closely after consecutive weeks parked at the highest level since October of 2021.