It’s funny how a given day’s coverage comes together. First thing Wednesday morning, while editorializing
Category: Duly Noted
Insiders And Punch Bowl Minders
The A.I. frenzy belies caution beneath the surface in equities. Or so said Barclays analysts
Bond Basis Position To Be Larger Than 2018-2019: Goldman
Is the big bond short just the other side of a basis trade? Yes, probably.
The $1 Trillion Question: Who’s Buying The Bills?
Assuming Kevin McCarthy manages to get his “worthy” debt ceiling accord through a raucous House,
Erdogan Extends Reign In Turkey
Recep Tayyip Erdogan isn’t going anywhere. Turkey’s long-serving strongman secured another presidential term on Sunday,
Marvell-Ous
Given the kind of week it’s been for the market’s A.I. obsession, I’d be remiss
US Stock Fund Exodus Drags Global Equity Flows Negative
Developed market-focused equity mutual funds and ETFs shed $3.21 billion over the latest weekly reporting
Money Market Assets, Bank Backstop Borrowing Hit New Records
Nearly $50 billion in new cash flooded into money market funds during the week to
Popular Strategist Weighs In On Nvidia’s Historic Rally
It was all about Nvidia on Thursday. By noon in the US, the company’s market
GDP Revisions, Claims Mock US Recession Meme
Bad news for the doves among you: The second estimate of Q1 GDP in the
Goldman Sees 30% Commodity Rally After ‘Great De-Stocking’
Last week, I talked a bit about commodities as a recession canary or, perhaps more
The Debt Ceiling Double Paradox
The paradox of a US debt ceiling deal is that it could be bad for
Mind The Taiwan Canary
Late last month, I identified a couple of additional recession “canaries” to complement the yield
Greedflation Aside, Corporate Profitability Is Feeling The Squeeze
Given all the media attention afforded to so-called “greedflation” (typically defined by reference to near-record
After The Stop-In: Markets Face New Risks If D.C. Deal Done
Needless to say, under-positioned discretionary investor cohorts were in an uncomfortable position this week. On
Big Short? No. Big FOMO? Yes.
“FOMO” is now a fixture of daily market banter. That’s unfortunate, not because it suggests
How Much Did Quants Buy Over The Last Six Months?
It’s no secret that systematic flows can be a deciding factor for equities over short
The Not-So-Curious Case Of Foreign-Facing Stock Outperformance
Geopolitical tension is running high. Perhaps you noticed. The first three years of the 2020s
Boring Bears
Outflows from US equities are ongoing. If this feels a bit Phil Connors–ish to you,
Left For Dead, 60/40 Attempts Comeback
So far, 2023 has been kind to beleaguered 60/40 portfolios. As discussed here at some
‘You Can Feel It Turning’: Stock Melt-Up Takes A Toll
Increasingly, funds are concerned they might miss the proverbial boat, and one bank’s client conversations
Money Market Assets, Fed Bank Backstop Usage Hit New Records
Different week, same story. US money market funds continued to swell and borrowing from the
Two ‘Major’ Risks From A D.C. Debt Ceiling Deal
A debt ceiling deal in D.C. would be good news, right? Yes. Yes, it would.
Is ChatGPT To Thank For All Of 2023’s Stock Gains?
You can’t separate the S&P 500’s YTD gains from the performance of large-cap US tech
At The Margins
There’s good news and bad news on margins. The bad news is, all three key
A.I. Everywhere
Sam Altman expressed concern about the A.I. programs he’s developing during remarks to US lawmakers
Famous Quant Warns Of ‘Rude Awakening’ In ‘Coming Vol Flare-Ups’
“Bonds imply a recession.” So said JPMorgan analysts led by Marko Kolanovic, who’s maintaining a
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