Mind The Taiwan Canary
Late last month, I identified a couple of additional recession "canaries" to complement the yield curve which, prescient as it might be, is a bit of a cliché. There's nothing wrong with citing inversions to make your bear case, but you're not going to win any plaudits for originality, and you may even elicit a few eye-rolls too. If you want to spice up your dour prognostications, you could cite collapsing money supply growth (paired with a reference to a possible "monetarist renaissance" for
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The “glass half full” view is that the second derivative has turned positive as April’s YOY decline was smaller than expected and smaller than previous quarters. Taiwan indicies bottomed in late 2022 and are headed up.