Given the kind of week it’s been for the market’s A.I. obsession, I’d be remiss not to briefly mention Marvell.
If you’re unfamiliar, Marvell makes chips. So, not to be confused with Marvel, which makes amusement parks, as Martin Scorsese famously (and derisively) described superhero movies.
As noted in “Corporate America’s New Strategy,” all you have to do these days to generate (get it?) a rally in your shares is mention “A.I.” If your company has even a superficially plausible claim on future A.I.-related revenue, that’s even better.
Marvell does have such a claim, and CEO Matt Murphy did mention A.I. while releasing Q1 results. Specifically, Murphy called A.I. “a key growth driver for Marvell,” and said that although the company is “still in the early stages of our A.I. ramp, we are forecasting our A.I. revenue in fiscal 2024 to at least double from the prior year and continue to grow rapidly in the coming years.”
And just like that, the shares rose the most in decades. The stock was already enjoying a nice bump from Thursday’s Nvidia hype, but it was nothing compared to Friday’s surge, illustrated rather poignantly below.
Between Thursday and Friday, the stock rose 35%. The two-session market cap increase was $16 billion, give or take.
I’m sure this is somewhat frustrating and perhaps even vexing for the bears among you, or for those who simply don’t like the sight of a mania. But this is why I penned “Don’t Short A Bubble” on Thursday afternoon just minutes prior to Marvell’s report. If you step in front of these kinds of frenzies, you’ll get run over. It’s that simple.
I’ll leave you with a few excerpts from Marvell’s analyst call and do note: What you’ll read below is but a small fraction of the discussion. The call was an A.I. festival.
From Matt Murphy:
Before we get to our results for each end market, let me start by discussing the tremendous opportunity that A.I. represents for Marvell. In the past, we considered A.I. to be one of many applications within cloud, but its importance and therefore the opportunity has increased dramatically. Generative A.I. is rapidly driving new applications and changing the investment priorities for our cloud customers.
In addition to our strong position in network connectivity for A.I., we believe we are well-positioned to address the compute opportunity. Over the last few months, we have taken time and carefully map our revenue from A.I. so we can track its progress over time. Given the tremendous progress we’ve made, including the recent demand increases from our customers, we are expecting our revenue driven by A.I. applications to grow at an accelerated pace.
In fiscal 2023, we estimate that our A.I. revenue was approximately $200 million, up dramatically from the prior year. We expect Marvell’s overall A.I. revenue to at least double in fiscal 2024. Looking to fiscal 2025, we expect robust growth to continue from A.I. for network connectivity. Layering on top of this is the growth we expect from the ramp of the cloud optimized programs. In aggregate, we foresee our overall A.I. revenue to at least double again next year. In other words, we are forecasting an A.I. revenue growth CAGR over 100% over the fiscal 2023 to 2025 time frame.

