Bad news for the doves among you: The second estimate of Q1 GDP in the US found personal consumption and core inflation revised higher against expectations for unchanged prints.

You could argue this doesn’t matter, and I wouldn’t necessary argue with you, but I wouldn’t exactly agree either.

Recent Fedspeak and selected excerpts from the May FOMC minutes suggest the June meeting is live. Even if Jerome Powell is inclined to herd cats around a pause, the hawks are plainly not going to countenance any statement language that rules out (or even plays down) additional hikes, should inflation developments warrant more tightening.

Thursday’s GDP revisions were incremental (if backward-looking) evidence to support the case that the US economy still isn’t rolling over, a message underscored earlier in the week by a robust flash read on S&P Global’s services PMI for May.

After the small upward revision, personal spending during 2023’s first three months matched the original consensus estimate (i.e., consensus as it stood prior to the advance read on GDP), and was the most robust since “stimmy” was a trending hashtag.

“The first quarter was never really viewed as a soft growth environment, and the revisions further cement that notion,” BMO’s Ben Jeffery remarked.

Meanwhile, jobless claims came in well below estimates, and the prior week’s figures were revised markedly lower. Initial claims rose just 4,000 in the week to May 20, and at 229,000, the headline print nearly matched the lowest estimate from four-dozen economists.

The previous week’s 242,000 headline was revised to show 225,000. The four-week moving average fell to the lowest in more than two months, and continuing claims were below estimates too. Actual, unadjusted initial claims rose less than 2,000.

Remember the Massachusetts outlier? Well, the state confirmed Thursday that it revised three months of data. The average downward revision for initial applications was 14,300 per week.

Small wonder given all of the above that the June and July FOMC meetings now have more than one “full” 25bps hike priced between them. The June gathering is (better than) a coin toss.

“Personal consumption rose to 3.8% for the first quarter. This, coupled with an A.I. boom, low levels of jobless claims and fraudsters gone from the mix seems like the new goldilocks,” Bloomberg’s Alyce Andres said, joking that America is witnessing the “best recession ever.”