Needless to say, under-positioned discretionary investor cohorts were in an uncomfortable position this week. On
Category: Duly Noted
Big Short? No. Big FOMO? Yes.
“FOMO” is now a fixture of daily market banter. That’s unfortunate, not because it suggests
How Much Did Quants Buy Over The Last Six Months?
It’s no secret that systematic flows can be a deciding factor for equities over short
The Not-So-Curious Case Of Foreign-Facing Stock Outperformance
Geopolitical tension is running high. Perhaps you noticed. The first three years of the 2020s
Boring Bears
Outflows from US equities are ongoing. If this feels a bit Phil Connors–ish to you,
Left For Dead, 60/40 Attempts Comeback
So far, 2023 has been kind to beleaguered 60/40 portfolios. As discussed here at some
‘You Can Feel It Turning’: Stock Melt-Up Takes A Toll
Increasingly, funds are concerned they might miss the proverbial boat, and one bank’s client conversations
Money Market Assets, Fed Bank Backstop Usage Hit New Records
Different week, same story. US money market funds continued to swell and borrowing from the
Two ‘Major’ Risks From A D.C. Debt Ceiling Deal
A debt ceiling deal in D.C. would be good news, right? Yes. Yes, it would.
Is ChatGPT To Thank For All Of 2023’s Stock Gains?
You can’t separate the S&P 500’s YTD gains from the performance of large-cap US tech
At The Margins
There’s good news and bad news on margins. The bad news is, all three key
A.I. Everywhere
Sam Altman expressed concern about the A.I. programs he’s developing during remarks to US lawmakers
Famous Quant Warns Of ‘Rude Awakening’ In ‘Coming Vol Flare-Ups’
“Bonds imply a recession.” So said JPMorgan analysts led by Marko Kolanovic, who’s maintaining a
Tech Allocations Surge As Funds Pile Into World’s Most Crowded Trade
Given that the small cohort of large companies we generally refer to as “mega-tech” is
At Least One Famous Billionaire Is Bullish
For what it’s worth — which is either nothing at all or quite a lot,
Why Stocks Could Fall 18% Despite Fed Pause
You’ve heard it before: “Sell the last hike.” That’s a familiar refrain for those who
Out Of US Stocks, Into Cash And Bonds
If you’re keeping track at home, outflows from US equity-focused ETFs and mutual funds continued
Saved By The Beveridge Curve (This Time Is Different)
This time is different. No, seriously. It is. The question is whether it’ll stay different.
Fade The Neon Swans?
There’s “neon swan” potential lurking in America’s debt ceiling crisis. Notwithstanding one former president’s unorthodox
How Bank Failures Drove Stocks Higher And Vol Lower
If you’ve been following along, you’ve noticed a paradox in markets: Two months on from
How S&P Companies Will Spend Cash This Year And Next
Buybacks will likely fall 15% in 2023. That’s according to Goldman, whose Ryan Hammond and
Powell’s Unlucky Fed Stares Into Default Oblivion
Jerome Powell, officially the least popular Fed chair since Gallup began tracking public confidence in
After Dialing Up $72 Billion, How Much More Can Vol-Control Buy?
In “Quants And Mortals” I gave readers what I’d describe as the “generic” version of
Bond Flows Get Passive Aggressive
I noticed a remarkable factoid this week that probably should’ve occurred to me previously: Active
China Recovery Theme Turns Vexingly Convoluted
China’s economic recovery is proving to be a halting affair. Notwithstanding justifiable reservations about the
Maybe The Consumer Is Exhausted After All
The highlight from last month’s New York Fed consumer survey was a new peak+ in
Stock Bulls Hope Record Hedge Fund Bond Short Is Wrong
According to the most recent available positioning snapshot, hedge funds pushed an already historic Treasury
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