A debt ceiling deal in D.C. would be good news, right? Yes. Yes, it would.
Category: Duly Noted
Is ChatGPT To Thank For All Of 2023’s Stock Gains?
You can’t separate the S&P 500’s YTD gains from the performance of large-cap US tech
At The Margins
There’s good news and bad news on margins. The bad news is, all three key
A.I. Everywhere
Sam Altman expressed concern about the A.I. programs he’s developing during remarks to US lawmakers
Famous Quant Warns Of ‘Rude Awakening’ In ‘Coming Vol Flare-Ups’
“Bonds imply a recession.” So said JPMorgan analysts led by Marko Kolanovic, who’s maintaining a
Tech Allocations Surge As Funds Pile Into World’s Most Crowded Trade
Given that the small cohort of large companies we generally refer to as “mega-tech” is
At Least One Famous Billionaire Is Bullish
For what it’s worth — which is either nothing at all or quite a lot,
Why Stocks Could Fall 18% Despite Fed Pause
You’ve heard it before: “Sell the last hike.” That’s a familiar refrain for those who
Out Of US Stocks, Into Cash And Bonds
If you’re keeping track at home, outflows from US equity-focused ETFs and mutual funds continued
Saved By The Beveridge Curve (This Time Is Different)
This time is different. No, seriously. It is. The question is whether it’ll stay different.
Fade The Neon Swans?
There’s “neon swan” potential lurking in America’s debt ceiling crisis. Notwithstanding one former president’s unorthodox
How Bank Failures Drove Stocks Higher And Vol Lower
If you’ve been following along, you’ve noticed a paradox in markets: Two months on from
How S&P Companies Will Spend Cash This Year And Next
Buybacks will likely fall 15% in 2023. That’s according to Goldman, whose Ryan Hammond and
Powell’s Unlucky Fed Stares Into Default Oblivion
Jerome Powell, officially the least popular Fed chair since Gallup began tracking public confidence in
After Dialing Up $72 Billion, How Much More Can Vol-Control Buy?
In “Quants And Mortals” I gave readers what I’d describe as the “generic” version of
Bond Flows Get Passive Aggressive
I noticed a remarkable factoid this week that probably should’ve occurred to me previously: Active
China Recovery Theme Turns Vexingly Convoluted
China’s economic recovery is proving to be a halting affair. Notwithstanding justifiable reservations about the
Maybe The Consumer Is Exhausted After All
The highlight from last month’s New York Fed consumer survey was a new peak+ in
Stock Bulls Hope Record Hedge Fund Bond Short Is Wrong
According to the most recent available positioning snapshot, hedge funds pushed an already historic Treasury
Outflows From US Equity Funds Top $50 Billion In 2023
Outflows from US-focused equity ETFs and mutual funds now exceed $50 billion for 2023. Generally
‘Catastrophe’ Talk Heats Up As US Nears Intentional Default
“This would be a constitutional crisis,” Janet Yellen told George Stephanopoulos on Sunday. She was
Used Car ‘Doom’ Is Inflation Fight Boon
On a day when a hot average hourly earnings print accompanying the monthly US jobs
EPS Optimism May Be Detached From Recession Reality
So-called “Greedflation” may be propping up US corporate profits for now, but as the old
First Republic Becomes ‘Other,’ Money Market Assets Hit New Record
First Republic’s discount window and BTFP borrowings rolled into the “Other credit extensions” line item
‘Left-Tail’ Bank Risk Growing ‘In Real Time,’ McElligott Says
“The banks left-tail outcome is growing in real-time,” Nomura’s Charlie McElligott said Thursday, amid another
US Labor Productivity Does Something It’s Never Done Before
While previewing this week’s deluge of key data out of the world’s largest economy, I
US Hiring Plans Plummet As Job Cuts Accumulate
Job cuts were the lowest of 2023 in April, according to figures released on Thursday. That’s
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