The impact of systematic flows — and particularly systematic selling — on equities is a
Category: Duly Noted
Disinversion By Bear?
The key question on the heels of this summer’s dramatic escalation in what’s now the
The Only Thing To Fear Is Missing Out
Ours is a market “conditioned to fear rallies more than selloffs and comfortably numb to
Vol-Selling, Mechanical De-Leveraging And What’s Next For Stocks
The muscle memory that says you sell vol on any meaningful expansion and/or setback for
What Explains The Low VIX/MOVE Ratio?
The tale of falling corporate interest payments in an environment of sharply higher rates is
Rates And Stocks From The Rooftops
Rising rates are a problem for richly-valued equities. Did you hear? If not, just step
One Bull, One Bear
Two weeks ago, BofA’s Savita Subramanian lifted the bank’s year-end target for the S&P to 4,600. The
Rally Bets Saddle Stocks With ‘Upside Overhang’
“GO TIME” read the subject line of the first Q4 note from Nomura’s Charlie McElligott,
Inflows To US Stock Funds Resume, But Sentiment Darkens Further
US equity-focused ETFs and mutual funds returned to inflows over the latest weekly reporting period.
Money Market Fund Assets Rise Back Near Record
Money market funds recouped minuscule mid-month redemptions with a $6.31 billion inflow in the week
UK Bonds Suffer Dramatic Selloff
UK bonds suffered what it’s fair to call an egregious rout on Thursday. The repricing
What’s Behind The Suddenly Positive Term Premium?
The term premium is positive again. Maybe you heard. Actually, you probably didn’t hear. This
Why Marko Kolanovic Sees A ‘Rate Shock’ Reckoning
JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic doesn’t agree with the notion that the majority of the drag from
Another Word On America’s Unprecedented Deposit Drop
I’m supposed to say something meaningful about an unprecedented decline in US bank deposits. The
Is Another Treasury Basis Blowup Coming?
If it’s possible to write a scary-sounding or otherwise foreboding basis trade story, somebody will
Meanwhile, In Taiwan
Every month, I provide a brief update on what I consider to be two reasonably
Kolanovic, JPMorgan Warn Against Dismissing Yield Curve Canary
I’ve been irreverent at times about the yield curve as a recession predictor. I instinctually
The Flows Behind Last Week’s Stock Selloff
Surprise! Last week’s selloff in US equities, the worst since March, was in no small
Treasury Yields ‘Vulnerable To A Pullback,’ Goldman Says
“We think bond yields are vulnerable to a pullback.” So said Goldman’s Praveen Korapaty in
US Equity Funds Suffer Largest Outflow Of 2023
The Lord giveth and the Lord taketh away. It was just a week ago when
Money Fund Assets Slip From Record With First Outflow Since August
Money market fund AUM retreated from record highs in the week to September 20, data
‘Simply Wait Until Something Goes Wrong’
On Thursday, in “Fade The Fed,” I suggested it might be time to… well, time
Is It Time For A Cascading, Mechanical Stock Selloff?
Is it time for a cascading stock selloff? Maybe. Thursday’s bear steepening in the US
Macro Shock Needed Amid ‘Aloof’ Vol, McElligott Says
You’ve heard it again and again. Or at least you have if you frequent these
‘Who’s Left’ To Buy Tech? The Case For A More Egalitarian Rally
“Read my lips: Equal-weighted over cap-weighted index.” So insisted BofA’s Savita Subramanian on Wednesday, while
The Road To Mutual Assured Economic Destruction
When taken together, Xi Jinping’s ill-conceived economic nationalism and Western efforts to de-risk supply chains
Germany’s Ongoing Lesson: You Can’t Depend On Dictators
Germany is learning the hard way: You can’t depend on authoritarian regimes and autocracies for
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