Who you gonna believe, gas prices or the labor market?
Last week, the preliminary read on University of Michigan sentiment for October betrayed a worrying juxtaposition: Sentiment deteriorated meaningfully and year-ahead inflation expectations posted the second-largest month-to-month increase since 2021.
The spread between the Michigan gauge and the Conference Board confidence index hit a new cycle low in September, when the latter notched a second consecutive monthly decline courtesy of a sharp drop in expectations. The October vintage of the Conference Board survey is due October 31.
Historically, it’s not a good thing when the confidence gauge catches down to Michigan headline sentiment.
In a Monday note, Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson flagged the decline in consumers’ assessments of their own finances in the Michigan poll before suggesting the spread between the two surveys is worth watching given the extent to which labor market resilience is even more crucial this cycle than it always is.
“While hardly a definitive indication that the labor market is set to weaken, this dynamic does bear close watching especially if profit margin pressure builds over the coming two quarters amid macro risk,” Wilson wrote.
As the figure shows, the spread peaks before recessions, then closes and turns negative.
I realize this is anecdotal but twice in the last 2 weeks my CVS store closed their pharmacy without warning twice and posted new store hours: closed Sun and closed Sat at 5:00 and weekdays at 8:00. They claim they can’t find workers. Right across the street I have a Burger King that just finished a very expensive remodeling about eight months ago. For the last three months they changed their hours. They are no longer open on weekends! They say no one will work. This is in the metro for the 20th biggest market in the US. My suburban town is the 6th largest in my state and for the last several months virtually all the local downtown retailers are now closed Sun and Mon. Regardless of the labor force data, something is wrong with this picture.