Look, I’m a simple man. Not really. I’m actually so complicated that even I don’t
Category: Duly Noted
Goldman Slashes US GDP Forecast On ‘Considerably More Adverse’ Tariff Policy
Don’t look now, but Goldman’s forecast for US economic growth is below blue-chip consensus all
‘Extreme’ US Policies Risk ‘Ugly’ American Exceptionalism
Way back last month, JPMorgan described three types of US economic exceptionalism: “Good,” “bad” and
Is Mr. Market Already Tired Of The Bullsh-t?
Whatever happens on jobs Friday and thereafter, the price action on Wall Street this week
‘Trump Put’ Struck At SPX 5555, One Bank Says
Where’s the so-called “Trump put” struck? Said differently, what’s the pain threshold for equity losses
US Corporate Profits Aren’t What You Think
Over the weekend, I talked a bit about the read-through of suddenly soft US macro
Doubt Creeps Into EPS Growth Forecasts As US Economy Stutters
The nascent US economic slowdown unfurling across a number of key macro metrics and indicators
The State Of The AI Narrative Post-Earnings
Nvidia suffered a rocky — albeit not exactly disastrous — post-earnings trade on Thursday, when
About Those Leveraged ETFs…
“Gamblers.” That’s how Bloomberg described market participants who avail themselves of leveraged ETFs in a
0DTEs Have Never Been More Prevalent
Not so long ago, you could scarcely go a day without reading something, somewhere in
It All Comes Back To The Dollar
What’s the proximate cause of America’s “losing” ways when it comes to international commerce, to
Everyone’s In The Pool. But No Splash Yet
Late last week, Goldman’s Scott Rubner cautioned that “everyone’s in the pool.” By that he
Record-Low Cash Levels Scream ‘Sell!’
Don’t look now, but cash levels among professional money managers just ticked a 15-year low
Record Retail Dip-Buying Won’t Last, Popular Strategist Cautions
So far in 2025, the retail crowd’s buying every dip. That’s according to Goldman’s Scott
Fed Policy’s Not Restrictive No Matter How Many Times Powell Says Otherwise
I don’t love this talking point, and even if I did, it feels exhausted by
Corporate America Clears The Bar. Again.
Earnings season’s nearly over. Except for Nvidia. Which is about like saying football season’s over
Don’s Dollar Dilemma
“The strong-dollar policy is completely intact with President Trump.” So said Scott Bessent on Thursday,
Why Trump Actually Needs Less ‘US Exceptionalism’
Late last week, I said it’d be ironic if “US exceptionalism” peaked in 2024 and
Is 2025 ‘Buy America’ Credo Too Consensus To Be Right?
If you chart the relative performance of US equities versus global shares excluding US stocks,
This Is The ‘True Source’ Of Mag7 Magnificence
The episode known in market circles as the “DeepSeek shock” was an unwelcome reminder: Capex
‘Run Your Models’: Trump Forces Fed To Do The Tariff Math
Higher prices. That’s the answer if the question is about the macro read-through of Donald
Who Has The Burden Of Proof, DeepSeek Or US Hyperscalers?
Who shoulders the burden of proof? That’s a key question for investors pondering the prospect
Adventures In Bond Land, Annotated
I’ve said it how many times? The rapidity and reason for a given move higher
It’s (Still) The Liquidity, Stupid
What’s the difference between explaining something and explaining something away? Not much, in my experience.
Justifying A Bubble
I wrote twice already this week about corporate balance sheets and the accrued blessings of
Spot-Up, Vol-Up And The VIX Squeeze Risk That Just Won’t Die
There’s a “monster vibe shift” afoot across thematic macro trades, where last week’s round of
This Time Was Different In At Least One ‘Shocking’ Respect
Earlier this week, in “As Corporate America’s Interest Burden Collapsed, US Government’s Soared,” I took
You must be logged in to post a comment.