The biggest tail risk is now a credit crunch accompanied by a global recession. That’s
Category: Duly Noted
Market Breadth Now Weakest Ever, Famous Bear Warns
Two of the sell-side’s most recognizable names warned on market breadth Monday. In an asset
Stocks Got $70 Billion Assist From Vol-Control Demand
If you’re wondering how much support equities have potentially received from the vol-sensitive mechanical bid
Investing With The Power Of Hindsight
Hindsight is a helluva thing. If time travel were possible, hindsight would be tantamount to
‘Fed Cuts Versus Recession’: The Next Battle
Where to from here? “Recession! That’s where.” Or so goes the refrain from seemingly everyone
US Rents Fall First Time Since Pandemic
There’s good news for America’s legions of renters who, thanks to the pandemic housing frenzy
What Jamie Dimon Said On JPMorgan’s Earnings Call
For obvious reasons, market participants were keen to hear from Jamie Dimon on Friday. JPMorgan’s
Bulls, Bears And Surprises
Like most people who harbor generalized doubts about humanity, not much surprises me. I often
Waller Versus Bostic
Raphael Bostic is ready to pause Fed rate hikes after one final move in May.
Fed Backstop Borrowing Falls Again
Banks continued to avail themselves of Fed liquidity backstops over the last week, but the
Local Oil Man Gets 50% Raise. Makes $36 Million
Typically, I wouldn’t go out of my way to call out CEO compensation, where “out
Was The Plunge In US Banking Lending An Optical Illusion?
Was America’s much-hyped “credit crunch” a mirage? As most regular readers will recall, Fed data
Americans Harbor Very Negative View Of Xi Jinping In New Poll
“Few Americans have confidence in Xi to do the right thing in world affairs, including nearly
Soft Landing Up North? BoC Seems To Think So
A month after becoming the first developed market central bank to pause a tightening campaign
Buffett: ‘No Reason To Worry’ About Bank Deposits
Warren Buffett wouldn’t confirm reports he discussed adverse developments in the US banking sector with
No ‘Light At Tunnel’s End’ For Taiwan Export Slump
Taiwan has a lot of problems currently, not least of which is that the autocrat
Monetarists Hope For Renaissance After ‘Correct’ Inflation Call
We should’ve given the monetarists more credit. That was one ostensible lesson from the pandemic
Are 2023 Fed Cuts ‘Inevitable’?
I suppose this goes without saying, but US rates are more pessimistic about the macro
Americans Most Pessimistic On Credit Access In A Decade
Americans harbored the most grim perceptions of credit availability in at least a decade during
Macron Hints At De-Dollarization, ‘Autonomy’ From US After Xi Meet
Emmanuel Macron doesn’t want to pick sides. During interviews published Sunday, but conducted while he
US Revolving Credit Rises 23rd Month As Rates Hit 20%
Americans’ revolving credit balances rose the least in nearly two years in February, data released
Why ‘Fixing’ The RRP ‘Problem’ Isn’t Straightforward
Over the past several weeks, the RRP situation, and the discussion around “what to do”
Emergency Fed Borrowing Elevated, But ‘Stable’
Stress across the US banking system might’ve abated in recent weeks, but liquidity demand remains
Are Company Analysts Pessimistic Enough Yet?
For much of the last year, company analysts were derided (sometimes mercilessly, and by their
In New Zealand, A Moment Of Truth
With the caveat that I’ve never conducted any sort of systematic demographic analysis of my
$5 Trillion Money Market ‘Bubble’ Spotlights Fed’s $2 Trillion RRP Garage
Last week, I suggested the Fed is attempting a difficult tightrope act with regard to
‘Peak Pain’ From Fed Hikes Still ‘A Few Quarters’ Away, One Bank Says
“Peak pain” for the US economy from the most aggressive rate-hiking cycle in a generation
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