The biggest tail risk is now a credit crunch accompanied by a global recession.

That’s according to the April vintage of BofA’s closely-watched Global Fund Manager survey, released on Tuesday.

Eagle-eyed panelists now better understand the risk of a contraction in bank lending after witnessing just such a contraction late last month. I’m just joking. But as usual, I do feel compelled to remind readers that the idea of preemptive tail risk-spotting is somewhat paradoxical, which is why the tail risk list in BofA’s survey generally tends to be dominated by concerns related to risks that’ve already manifested in one way or another.

Persistent inflation and hawkish central banks was a close second this month, followed by a systemic credit event and worsening geopolitical tensions (see the chart on the left, above).

Investors’ cash levels remained elevated, at 5.5% (chart on the right). That was unchanged from March, and BofA’s Michael Hartnett noted that cash allocations “have been above 5.0% for 17 consecutive months,” a stretch “eclipsed only by the 32-month dot-com bear market.”

Of course, it pays to wait in cash currently, and handsomely so. Who wouldn’t want an ATM put that yields 5%?