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Author: therealheisenberg

Passive Aggressive

November 4, 2024November 6, 2024

What share of the US equity market’s passively owned? Non sequitur, I know. Every article’s

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1 Comment on Passive Aggressive

Red Sweep Or Harris-Gridlock?

November 4, 2024November 4, 2024

Admittedly, I don’t so much enjoy the days ahead of US elections. It’s very difficult,

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‘Harris-Gridlock’ As The Vol Killer

November 4, 2024November 5, 2024

As much fun as a Trump-inspired surge in small business sentiment and a galloping, animal

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10 Comments on ‘Harris-Gridlock’ As The Vol Killer

Gamblers Assemble!

November 4, 2024November 5, 2024

Markets were awake Monday to the possibility that trading the US election based on betting

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5 Comments on Gamblers Assemble!

Save The City

November 3, 2024November 5, 2024

This week, tens of millions of Americans will, for a third time, cast their ballots

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21 Comments on Save The City

Buffett!

November 2, 2024November 4, 2024

Money. Warren Buffett has some. Berkshire Hathaway’s mountainous cash pile grew for a ninth consecutive

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10 Comments on Buffett!

Pre-Election Flows Check

November 1, 2024November 1, 2024

If you were wondering, inflows to US equity funds continued in the lead-up to an

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Bonds Had It Comin’. But Everything Has A Price

November 1, 2024November 4, 2024

How unusual is the post-first Fed cut selloff in bond land? The answer is: Pretty

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7 Comments on Bonds Had It Comin’. But Everything Has A Price

US Factory Recession Worsens, Morphs Into Stagflation

November 1, 2024November 3, 2024

Widgets. They don’t make ’em like they used to. They don’t make ’em where they

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2 Comments on US Factory Recession Worsens, Morphs Into Stagflation

Thank You, Hurricanes

November 1, 2024November 4, 2024

The US economy added virtually no jobs in October on net, according to data which

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1 Comment on Thank You, Hurricanes

Double A

October 31, 2024November 2, 2024

Large numbers. (Loud noises.) Amazon ran up $158.9 billion in sales during Q3, results released

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7 Comments on Double A

Don’t Worry About That. Worry About This.

October 31, 2024October 31, 2024

“The sea was angry that day, my friends.” The waters were a bit choppy on

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7 Comments on Don’t Worry About That. Worry About This.

Where’s The Fire Now?

October 31, 2024November 1, 2024

I’m a broken record: The Fed should keep rates unchanged at the November policy meeting.

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4 Comments on Where’s The Fire Now?

Necessary But Not Sufficient

October 31, 2024November 1, 2024

Good news for a Fed that was (probably) going to cut anyway: Jerome Powell’s favorite

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ECB Flummoxed By Abrupt Data U-Turn

October 31, 2024November 1, 2024

A warm GDP release and now an inflation overshoot. Maybe the ECB should’ve waited for

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Analogues, Probable Outcomes And Certain Disputes

October 30, 2024October 31, 2024

If you’re curious to know what’s in store for markets following next week’s epoch-making election

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3 Comments on Analogues, Probable Outcomes And Certain Disputes

M&Ms

October 30, 2024October 31, 2024

$65.6 billion. That’s how much revenue Microsoft generated during the three months ended September 30.

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5 Comments on M&Ms

‘Fierce’ Mechanical Buying Could Turbocharge A Post-Election Stock Rally

October 30, 2024October 30, 2024

If we can make it through the US election without “incident” — and I’ll let

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5 Comments on ‘Fierce’ Mechanical Buying Could Turbocharge A Post-Election Stock Rally

Free-Spending Americans, Blockbuster Hiring May Complicate Fed Decision

October 30, 2024October 31, 2024

The US economy’s doing pretty well. In aggregate. Note the caveat: In aggregate. There’s absolutely

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2 Comments on Free-Spending Americans, Blockbuster Hiring May Complicate Fed Decision

In Europe, A Dead Cat Bounce?

October 30, 2024October 31, 2024

For the longest time, Europe’s moribund growth profile meant the ECB’s biggest worry was deflation

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Alphabet Puts Up Decent Numbers Amid Antitrust Angst

October 29, 2024October 30, 2024

Magnificent 7 laggard Alphabet reported a set of large numbers after the bell on Wall

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4 Comments on Alphabet Puts Up Decent Numbers Amid Antitrust Angst

Never Surrender! (The Trump Premium)

October 29, 2024October 29, 2024

Bonds. Everyone’s talking about them. Well, probably not “everyone.” And if someone is talking about

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MiXeD BaG

October 29, 2024October 30, 2024

Mixed signals. Tuesday’s US macro releases sent mixed signals. Job openings — a key input

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4 Comments on MiXeD BaG

US Home Price Growth Slows, But Main Street Gut-Punched By Rate-Rise

October 29, 2024October 30, 2024

US home appreciation slowed as summer drew to a close, according to Tuesday’s update on

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1 Comment on US Home Price Growth Slows, But Main Street Gut-Punched By Rate-Rise

‘UNRWA Equals Hamas, Period’

October 29, 2024October 30, 2024

The very existence of the UNRWA testifies to the notion, true or not, that a

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4 Comments on ‘UNRWA Equals Hamas, Period’

Goldman’s Rubner Says Don’t Expect Stock-Dip Around US Election

October 28, 2024October 29, 2024

If you’re waiting for a post-election selloff to add risk, maybe don’t. Don’t wait, I

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1 Comment on Goldman’s Rubner Says Don’t Expect Stock-Dip Around US Election

Sell-By Date

October 28, 2024October 29, 2024

Oil was — umm — lower on Monday. I don’t have a model to “prove”

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2 Comments on Sell-By Date

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • Engineer on Mona Lisa’s Smirk
  • Engineer on The Tragic Irony Of The Israeli State
  • WMD on F-ck You, Claude (Zen)
  • n3utra on Anthropic: The Promise, The Numbers, The Risks

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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