Don’t look now, but global equities just saw their first weekly outflow since April. $3.7
Author: therealheisenberg
Reflexivity And Risky Ventures
Market participants don’t fully appreciate the Fed’s reflexivity “problem.” I put problem in scare quotes
Demographics Matter
Demographics matter. A lot. And in everything. Elections are no exception. In fact, elections are
It’s Gotta Be 50, Jay: The Case For A Half-Point Fed Cut
“Hey, Jay. Why don’t you just get started?” Asking for Bill Dudley. With just days
America’s Inflation Worries Fade With Fed On Deck
At 2.7%, Americans’ year-ahead inflation expectations slipped to the lowest since December of 2020 early
Stratospheric Cash Mountain Grows Still Taller As MMF Inflows Persist
It just keeps going and going and going and… US money funds saw a sixth
Communist Embrace
“Common prosperity.” That’s what Xi Jinping’s ostensibly trying to promote and propagate in China. He’d
Nvidia Has ‘Central Bank-Like Power’ In Modern Markets
Earlier this month, I described the size (and, by extension, the index influence) of Nvidia’s
Producer Prices Warm Up, Jobless Claims Tick Higher In Disagreeable US Data
If hope still floated for a 50bps rate cut from Jerome Powell next week, Thursday’s
ECB Delivers Second Rate Cut. Will Wing It From Here
The ECB on Thursday cut rates for the second time in three meetings, as expected.
Now Or Later, The Market Will Get The Cuts It Wants
“A bigger increase in cyclically-sensitive shelter prices will make it harder for Fed officials to
As Rates Fall, What Will Become Of US Housing?
If you want to argue that orthodoxy has it backwards when it comes to rates
Beware The ‘Acute,’ Multifaceted Seasonal Liquidity Drain
I’ve talked a lot about a challenging late-September seasonal for equities. And I’ve talked a
Goodbye 50?
While previewing this week’s US inflation update, I wrote that if you’re in the camp
God Save Our Pets
“In Springfield, they’re eating the dogs!” Donald Trump boomed, to incredulous chuckles from Kamala Harris
Bear Goggles
The lead-up to Wednesday’s US CPI release wasn’t the most exciting tape to watch. Any
Typical American Family Got Richer Last Year, Government Imagines
Do you feel richer? In real terms? Or in any other terms for that matter?
Fed Should Take A Hint From Commodities
If the global economy’s holding up — and I’ll readily admit to positing a bit
Great Leap Backwards
Different month, same contrast. The much-discussed divergence between China’s outbound shipments and imports was on
Disconnects And The Fed’s Ever-Present Reflexivity Problem
As discussed at some length in “Who You Gonna Believe?,” one of the key market
‘Oh Snap! Did I Short Into The Lows?’
“Oh snap! Did I short into the lows?” That’s what at least some traders thought
Bond Market Says Fed Has Never Been Further Behind
Pundits will say whatever pundits say, but the market thinks the Fed’s behind the curve.
Yardeni, Wilson Cite Yen Carry Trade As Key Factor In Fed Debate
If you’re the Fed, there are good arguments against coming out swinging with a 50bps
The Unfolding Tragedy Of Xi Jinping’s China
China could’ve ruled the world. All the government in Beijing had to do was pretend
Belle Époque
One’s a recovering alcoholic who still drinks wine “responsibly” and dreams of starting her own
US Inflation Update, ECB Rate Cut On Deck As Stocks Try To Recover
I’d say the size of the first Fed rate cut will be decided this week,
Accursed Month
Goldman’s Scott Rubner was right. Markets were, as it turns out, predisposed to pre-trading a
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