Mixed signals. Tuesday’s US macro releases sent mixed signals.

Job openings — a key input in the Fed’s decision calculus — fell markedly in September, the BLS said. Remember: This series is reported on a lag.

Openings were 7.443 million on the final business day of last month, more than 400,000 fewer than August’s downwardly-revised 7.861 million. Both the decline and the downward adjustment to the prior month’s release will be welcomed by the Fed. Obviously, no one wants to see openings fall off a cliff, but for now, gradual declines still count as “normalization.”

Hires rose to 5.558 million, the most in four months. August’s hires were revised up.

The headline openings print was nearly 600,000 below consensus, which expected 8 million for a second straight month. 7.443 million counted as the fewest openings since January of 2021.

The quit rate, a crucial barometer of churn, came in at 1.9. It was 1.9 in the initial release covering August too, but that was revised up to 2.0 on Tuesday. Either way, this metric has normalized entirely.

Total quits were 3.071 million, the least since August of 2020.

As for the implied jobs-to-jobless ratio, 1.01 means there’s now almost exactly one open position for every American counted as “officially” unemployment. Congrats to — I don’t know, statisticians? — “perfect balance” unlocked! Now if only we could get the matching efficiency right, we’d be in good shape. On that point, I’d gently remind readers that if Donald Trump deports all the restaurant dishwashers and hotel towel-folders, “pure-blooded” white Americans are going to have to take those jobs. How’s that gonna work, exactly?

Anyway, most of the above’s dovish for a Fed determined to cut rates next week irrespective of the data. Fewer job openings, the lowest quit rate in nearly a decade if you exclude the pandemic era (i.e., if you exclude half of that same decade) and a 1-to-1 jobs-to-jobless ratio are a green light for lower rates.

And yet, Conference Board confidence overshot by a country mile for October, surging to 108.7 against consensus for 99.5. That doesn’t scream for policy easing.

As the figure shows, that was the biggest month-to-month increase since Joe Biden’s approval rating was good, which is to say since March of 2021 when the government was still mainlining America with “stimmy.”

The Conference Board release was a highlight reel of relative optimism. The Present Situation gauge rose dramatically — more than 14ppt — and the Expectations index hit 89.1. That metric has struggled to stay above 80, a level associated with oncoming recessions. 89.1 suggests recession fears are abating, and indeed, Conference Board chief economist Dana Peterson noted that the share of survey participants who expect a recession over the next 12 months fell to its lowest level since the summer of 2022, which is to say the lowest since the question’s introduction.

Importantly, the share of respondents who said the US economy’s in a recession currently also slipped to the lowest since the question was first asked more than two years ago, suggesting the so-called “vibecession” may be ending. The question for Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is whether the sudden improvement in perceptions of the economy is attributable to Fed cuts, good data and so on, or to optimism around a new day in D.C. If it’s the latter, who are voters optimistic about?

For the FOMC, the most relevant metric from the confidence data’s obviously the labor differential. It rose to 18.3, a four-month high and the first increase since Q1. But, as ING’s James Knightley was quick to remark, “the trend is still pointing to a cooling jobs market.”

As the figure from Knightley shows, the labor differential appears to suggest imminent and material UNR upside. “People notice and feel changes before they show up in the official data,” Knightley wrote.

Put it all together — i.e., roll up the JOLTS release with the Conference Board survey — and what do you get? Who knows! Coming full circle, a mixed picture from the perspective of monetary policy. The job openings print, the quit rate and the openings-to-unemployed ratio were plainly dovish. The Conference Board release was hawkish, with Knightley’s caveat.

As I put it Sunday while previewing this week’s macro circus, rarely does the data admit of clean reads. The human condition’s messy and complicated. Macro data reflects human behavior. So it should be messy and complicated too.

If you wanted, you could spin Tuesday’s releases as “Goldilocks.” Here’s the math: Labor market normalization » Fed cuts + improving confidence + more plentiful jobs² ÷ MAGA ± Opportunity Economy * NVIDIA Blackwell = SPX 6500.