US Home Price Growth Slows, But Main Street Gut-Punched By Rate-Rise

US home appreciation slowed as summer drew to a close, according to Tuesday’s update on the nation’s marquee price gauge.

The S&P Case-Shiller 20-city index rose “just” 5.2% in August, the figures showed. That was down from nearly 6% in July, but still managed to top estimates. Consensus was looking for 5.1%.

I probably don’t need the scare quotes around the word “just” above. 5% doesn’t actually count as blockbuster price growth. In fact, 5%’s about average. But I try to be sympathetic to the legions of American renters for whom any additional price gains for homes they can’t afford are insult to injury. And do note: Wage growth isn’t running 5% YoY.

As the figure shows, August’s price appreciation was the slowest in months. The broader, national gauge rose 4.2%.

“Home price growth is beginning to show signs of strain,” S&P’s Brian Luke remarked. “As students went back to school, home price shoppers appeared less willing to push the index higher than in the summer months.”

You gotta love the characterization of homebuyers as a collective of “shoppers” engaged in an effort to drive up a price index. Spoiler alert, Brian: Would-be homeowners are trying to get the lowest price they can get, not the highest. (“Good news, Mr. Johnson! The seller’s willing to take $25,000 less just to get the deal done.” “Hmm. So they’ll take $600,000 even then?” “Yep!” “Tell them $650,000 is my best and final offer.”)

“Regionally, all markets continue to remain positive, barely,” Luke went on, noting that prices in Denver hardly rose at all.

Meanwhile, FHFA’s gauge moved up 0.3% in August from July, and 4.2% YoY. Anju Vajja, the agency’s deputy research director described the gains as “modest,” but emphasized that “slow but continued house price growth” is contributing to “persistent housing affordability challenges.”

Speaking of which, a quick trip over to Redfin’s always entertaining news section finds Dana Anderson noting that over the past several weeks, during which US mortgage rates rose in tandem with 10-year Treasury yields, Americans lost more than $30,000 of buying power.

“Mortgage rates hit 7% on October 28, the highest level since the start of summer and up nearly one percentage point from the 18-month low they dropped to in mid-September,” Anderson sighed. A homebuyer who, a mere six weeks ago, could’ve “afforded” (and the scare quotes are appropriate there) a $476,000 home on a $3,000 monthly budget is now shopping for a $443,000 home. (Womp, womp.)


 

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One thought on “US Home Price Growth Slows, But Main Street Gut-Punched By Rate-Rise

  1. Conference Board consumer confidence number upsided. Delta to U Michigan consumer sentiment number may be due to Michigan’s shift from phone to online survey, as discussed previously.

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