Brace yourselves: The days leading into the US jobs report will be busy.

Every now and again, the stars align such that NFP week’s bevy of top-tier US data releases overlap key quarterly macro updates (including ECI and GDP) as well as big-“tech” earnings. That’s the case this week. For good measure, the Treasury borrowing estimate and the QRA are due as well.

The Fed’s in the pre-meeting quiet period ahead of the November FOMC gathering, so if the data suggests a rate cut in November isn’t warranted, or would be ill-advised, they’ll have to communicate that through the media, namely the Wall Street Journal‘s Nick Timiraos and FT‘s Colby Smith.

Markets of course still expect the Fed to cut at next month’s meeting, but virtually every key data release since September’s 50bps move suggests there’s no rush. Core CPI was warm in the most recent update, retail sales were strong, initial claims quickly erased a weather-related spike and then there was September’s jobs report which famously came in “glowing hot,” to quote MOVE creator Harley Bassman.

Consensus sees just 110,000 for the October NFP headline. There’s some speculation about a negative print. Economists expect to hear the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1%. Wage growth, professional forecasters reckon, was 0.3% this month.

As a reminder: The last US jobs report printed 254,000 on the headline and came packaged with large upward revisions to the prior two months. October’s report will reflect distortions from strikes and hurricanes, making the data even harder to parse for policymakers than it already would be (many observers contend the data’s less reliable post-pandemic).

Assuming a consensus print and (naively) no revisions, the three-month average pace of hiring would slip to 174,000. Recall that the three-month pace receded all the way down to 116,000 prior to the September jobs report. The blowout headline from that release, along with upward revisions to figures for August and July, pushed the pace 70,000 higher in one fell swoop.

This is a somewhat odd thing to say, but the Fed really needs a soft jobs number. Another big beat on the NFP headline and/or another tick lower for the UNR accompanied by firm monthly wage growth would severely complicate the optics around a rate cut on November 7. Yes, Jerome Powell has some leeway to explain away any surprises by reference to weather and labor stoppages, but if this week’s data is strong, he won’t be able to convince everyone on the Committee of the merits for a follow-up cut. That doesn’t mean he can’t cajole holdouts to begrudgingly acquiesce, but… well, again, the Fed needs a soft jobs report. They don’t want a train wreck, of course, but Powell really (really) needs some air cover for a November cut. And nothing says “This cut was justified” like a soft NFP headline.

Ahead of the jobs report, traders will be Gazans: Relentlessly bombarded and constantly at risk of blowing up. The docket’s a veritable mine field. On Wednesday, the first estimate of Q3 GDP will almost surely show the world’s largest economy expanded at a robust clip last quarter.

A consensus read would mark a second consecutive quarter of 3% real growth. Backward-looking? Well, yes. Obviously. Compatible with aggressive rate cuts? No. Obviously not, or not as long as the labor market holds up. The personal consumption component will likely be strong. Business spending too.

15 minutes prior to that release, ADP will offer an update on private sector hiring, which is seen at 110,000 for October. Treasury will release the refunding details around the same time. Remember: The term premium’s creeping back up. There’s no room right now for any upside surprises on coupon supply. The QRA needs to be (must be) a non-event, unless Janet Yellen wants to aggravate an already irritable bond market.

On Thursday, the market will get the Employment Cost Index covering Q3. Do note: This week marks the three-year anniversary of the print which, by his own account, convinced Powell to pivot hawkish. It wasn’t any CPI release which convinced Powell to abandon the “good ship ‘transitory.'” Rather, it was a hot ECI reading, and specifically the Q3 2021 print. Now here we are, three years later, with the Fed pondering a second rate cut, and Powell eying ECI for the green light.

As the figure shows, consensus expects 0.9% from the ECI headline. Don’t sleep on that release. If it overshoots, the stakes for the jobs report will be even higher. If, by contrast, it comes in cool, it’ll take some (but not much) of the pressure off in the event the NFP headline’s warm again.

I can’t emphasize this enough: If GDP prints 3% (or higher), ECI tops estimates by any appreciable margin and the jobs report’s another upside surprise, the Fed’s going to be in a real bind: They’ll have no data-based case for a November cut, and as such, they’ll have to get market pricing to a coin toss (between a pause and a 25bps reduction) fast, assuming it’s not already there.

That said, the odds of that outcome seem… I don’t want to say “low.” I actually think they’re high, or relatively high anyway. It’s just that a “hawkish sweep,” if you will, would constitute a pretty “clean” read on the US economy. The message would be this: The economy’s fine, notwithstanding the structural “haves” / “have-nots” divide. Rarely does the data admit of clean reads. The human condition’s messy and complicated. Macro data reflects human behavior. So it should be messy and complicated too.

In addition to ECI, Thursday will feature updates on the Fed’s preferred inflation measures, PCE prices and core PCE prices. Those numbers, as well as the accompanying personal spending figures covering September, will already be “in the market,” so to speak, courtesy of the GDP release on Wednesday. Still, they’ll garner some attention.

Consensus is looking for 0.3% from the MoM core PCE print. You obviously don’t want an overshoot there, particularly since a consensus read would already count as the briskest monthly pace since March.

The same release will probably show personal spending grew 0.4% in September. That’s yet another place you don’t want a “beat,” or at least not if you’re determined that Fed cuts should be fast and furious.

Also on the macro docket this week in the US: JOLTS (if job openings rise, that’s hawkish, if they fall, it’s dovish), Conference Board consumer confidence for October, updates on both national home price gauges, pending home sales, Challenger job cuts and, finally, ISM manufacturing (consensus expects yet another contraction-territory print).

All of that, and earnings are due from Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta and Microsoft.

Good luck. And if you’re a day trader, remember: You’re competing against machines.