If you’re waiting for a post-election selloff to add risk, maybe don’t. Don’t wait, I mean.

That was one takeaway from the latest by Goldman’s Scott Rubner. He didn’t put it quite that way. Rather, he simply suggested that some market participants expect equities to temporarily swoon in and around what’s guaranteed to be a contentious ballot next week, and that such expectations might be misguided.

Regular readers know the seasonal. Here it is, in all its Santa rally glory:

Looking back nearly a century, “today begins the best trading period of the year,” Rubner reminded traders. That seasonal’s even more favorable during election years. (Median return from today through year-end is 5.2%, in election years it’s 6.3%.)

As October winds up, the supply overhang from mutual funds and pensions will lift, just as the corporate bid exits the blackout window. Say it with me: The largest source of demand for US equities are corporates themselves.

The figure below shows the share of annual buyback spend by month. November stands out. Goldman’s corporate execution desk expects $960 billion worth of executed buybacks this year. So, simple math suggests next month could see ~$100 billion worth.

Remember: Large flows into thin markets = outsized impact, and markets can be pretty thin in and around Thanksgiving and also after Christmas (who can forget the epic “out of bonds, into stocks” rebalance stick-save in late December 2018, without which that month would’ve been even crueler to equities than it already was).

Commenting further on the corporate bid next month, Rubner said Monday he “expects $6 billion worth of daily VWAP demand in the 19 trading days of November,” a flow which could have a bigger “impact during lower-liquidity days.”

As ever, he went into quite a bit of visual detail regarding potential forward-looking flow dynamics, but the bottom line from Scott was straightforward. “The global consensus on Wall Street is that we will dip after the election, and investors are waiting for the (-5%) dip to add,” he wrote, adding that he doesn’t see it. “I think the US election will be a clearing event for risk assets and re-risking may happen quickly,” he said.