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Author: therealheisenberg

Fed Consumer Poll Paints Upbeat Picture

November 12, 2024November 13, 2024

The New York Fed released its consumer expectations report on Tuesday. Who’s excited?! These releases

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Don’t Be Crazy

November 12, 2024November 13, 2024

“Don’t be crazy.” You’re already hearing the exhortations to Donald Trump. I didn’t see “crazy”

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26 Comments on Don’t Be Crazy

Hedges Roasting On An Open Fire

November 11, 2024November 11, 2024

“A smoldering pile of ash.” That’s your puts, may they rest in peace. Over the

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2 Comments on Hedges Roasting On An Open Fire

MAGAMusk

November 11, 2024November 12, 2024

On April 23, I wrote about Elon Musk. At the time, Tesla was struggling badly.

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6 Comments on MAGAMusk

A Rich Country

November 11, 2024November 12, 2024

Valuations. Get ’em while they’re rich. It’s like the old adage says: Buy high, sell

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2 Comments on A Rich Country

Grab ‘Em By The Surplus

November 11, 2024November 12, 2024

“I think it is mainly down to Trump. The threat is becoming more real.” So

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4 Comments on Grab ‘Em By The Surplus

Rope: Read And Understand Operator’s Manual Before Using

November 10, 2024November 12, 2024

Donald Trump will command a majority of headlines in the days ahead, but a bevy

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5 Comments on Rope: Read And Understand Operator’s Manual Before Using

Earnings Seasons Are Back To Normal

November 10, 2024November 11, 2024

“Back to normal.” Earnings seasons are back to normal. That’s according to Goldman’s David Kostin

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What To Expect From ‘Trump 2.0’

November 9, 2024November 11, 2024

If you want to know what to expect from a second Donald Trump term, here’s

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4 Comments on What To Expect From ‘Trump 2.0’

Survival Of The Richest

November 9, 2024December 26, 2024

Four bullets. He took four bullets, each one an occupational hazard. Or at least that’s

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27 Comments on Survival Of The Richest

6.6K Spoos By Inauguration (MAGA Flows)

November 8, 2024November 11, 2024

They were buying US stocks on MAGA day. “Wednesday saw the biggest daily inflow in

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To Shop Or Not To Shop

November 8, 2024November 10, 2024

The US consumer mood brightened early this month, according to the preliminary read on the

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5 Comments on To Shop Or Not To Shop

Dumbasses

November 8, 2024November 10, 2024

“Trump will fix it.” So said many a campaign sign in the final days before

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19 Comments on Dumbasses

Powell To Trump: I’m Not Going Anywhere

November 7, 2024November 9, 2024

Reporters only cared about one thing Thursday while questioning Jerome Powell: Donald Trump. The Fed

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8 Comments on Powell To Trump: I’m Not Going Anywhere

Fed Cuts Again As Powell Braces For Trump

November 7, 2024November 8, 2024

The Fed cut rates by a quarter-point on Thursday, as expected. I don’t think there

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2 Comments on Fed Cuts Again As Powell Braces For Trump

Leveraged ETFs Were $17 Billion Flow Kicker To MAGA Rally

November 7, 2024November 7, 2024

So, yeah: Modern markets did their thing in the monster, mid-week MAGA melt-up. The post-election

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ULCPI

November 7, 2024November 8, 2024

The BLS’s quarterly productivity and cost releases don’t make for the most compelling reading, but

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2 Comments on ULCPI

Bank Of England Delivers Cautious Cut As Fiscal Uncertainty Clouds Outlook

November 7, 2024November 8, 2024

“External shocks have abated,” helping to facilitate the disinflation process. So said the Bank of

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The Dollar In Trump’s Second Coming

November 6, 2024

A word on the dollar. I suppose I should say another word on the dollar.

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3 Comments on The Dollar In Trump’s Second Coming

Vol Crush Unlocked

November 6, 2024November 7, 2024

Vol was obviously crunched hard into a truly raucous, post-election rally on Wall Street. “MAGA

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MAGA High

November 6, 2024November 7, 2024

TRUUUUUUMP!!! Buy it all, goddammit. Except the bonds. Sell those. I realize Wednesday’s a somber

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3 Comments on MAGA High

For Democrats: A Reckoning

November 6, 2024November 7, 2024

It wasn’t close. Really it wasn’t. Donald Trump served notice this week that America’s still

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16 Comments on For Democrats: A Reckoning

We’re Going Back!

November 6, 2024November 7, 2024

In the early-morning hours of November 4, 2020, when votes were still being tallied in

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16 Comments on We’re Going Back!

Vol Crush Loading

November 5, 2024November 6, 2024

Everybody likes a good forward on an esoteric backtest. For what it’s worth, at least

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Surprise! US Services Sector Still Going Strong

November 5, 2024November 6, 2024

The US services sector is holding up well, data released on Tuesday showed. That’s not

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2 Comments on Surprise! US Services Sector Still Going Strong

See You At The Capitol!

November 5, 2024November 6, 2024

Put on your red hats and sling your rifles, it’s Election Day in the US.

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15 Comments on See You At The Capitol!

US Stocks: Exceptional And Exceptionally Expensive

November 4, 2024

How richly-valued are US equities? It’s all relative. To the dot-com bust. I’m kidding. But

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

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Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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