If you want to know what to expect from a second Donald Trump term, here’s a hint: Unbridled influence peddling and government capture on a heretofore unimaginable scale.

I talked about that a bit in “Second Coming,” the latest Weekly. Trump’s a purely transactional operator, and he’ll be surrounded this time around with only the fiercest loyalists, which is to say no one with any sort of scruples.

I don’t know what that means for markets, per se. I know what it means for individuals who endear themselves to Trump and for the companies those individuals run, though. I suppose one investment strategy is simply to buy the stocks of those companies.

Tesla had a helluva week. The rolling four-session gain for Elon Musk’s only publicly-traded venture was 33%. I’ll just leave that there.

What, other than the stocks of companies whose executives are keen to participate in Trump’s oligarchy should investors be buying (or selling)? That’s the billion-dollar question. Or the $300-billion-question if you’re Musk.

In his latest, BofA’s Michael Hartnett noted that “conventional wisdom” says Trump 2.0 means “tariffs, immigration controls and tax cuts,” which in turn points to a “US inflationary boom” and a “global deflationary bust.” If that’s borne out, you want to be long gold, the dollar, US stocks (with the big-tech, small-cap “barbell”) and short Treasurys.

But what if conventional wisdom isn’t right? What does “unconventional wisdom” argue for in a Trump 2.0 regime? Hartnett suggested investors may want to consider trimming risk in the event of an equity melt-up, given the eventual read-through for financial conditions of higher reals. 2.5% on 10-year reals is the level to watch, he said.

Do note: The term premium jumped 15bps on November 6. At 32bps, that day’s estimate was a new high since the wides seen in October of last year, when Treasury yields peaked for the cycle, forcing Janet Yellen to “intervene” with smaller-than-expected coupon increases at the QRA.

It’s very likely that coupon auctions will need to be bumped up again next year, and… well, that’s when Trump could risk losing the long-end absent some manner of Fed assist. (You’re going to hear that talking point — about “losing the long-end” — over and over again in the months ahead. Hartnett mentioned it specifically.)

Eventually, though, it might make sense to buy bonds in the event yields exceed 5%. The Fed, Hartnett said, may “need to signal [a] determination to temper inflation expectations via no cuts in 2025,” while the bond vigilantes could “force the new administration to temper tariffs” or even tip spending cuts and “signal the budget deficit will peak in 2025.” The point — I guess — is that the growth outlook would take a hit in that scenario, pushing yields lower.

Hartnett went on to suggest Trump 2.0 may “balance [the] expected inflationary cocktail of tariffs, immigration controls and tax cuts with [a] disinflationary mix of deficit discipline, deregulation and peaceful geopolitics.” Maybe, he mused, there won’t be a meltdown in Treasurys after all.

Finally, Hartnett said the bravest contrarians may consider buying Chinese and European stocks for Trump 2.0. “As China eases fiscal policy and the ECB cuts rates aggressively in anticipation of ‘America First’ tariffs, lower rates, cheaper currencies and lower oil prices [would] mean a big easing of financial conditions in Asia and Europe relative to the US,” he said.