“Volatility near or at record lows by a handful of measures should give pause to equity managers.”
Author: therealheisenberg
Michael Bloomberg Doesn’t Even Know ‘Where To Begin’ On Trump’s Transgender Ban…
“It’s hard to know where to begin with President Donald Trump’s tweeted ban on transgender people serving in the U.S. military, which manages to offend on both moral and practical grounds, in both style and substance.”
‘They’re Playing With Fire!’: There’s No Geopolitical Risk Priced Into Oil
“Investors should not interpret this as a sign of quiet trading in the summer and muted price moves ahead. Instead, we view this as a good opportunity to add to their long exposure with cheap optionality, especially with global oil inventories continuing to tighten and geopolitics heating up again.”
Let’s Talk About Impeachment …
“Ernest Hemingway advised authors to write one true sentence. Among the truest words describing the Trump presidency were written by Professor Laurence Tribe of the Harvard Law School, in an op-ed in The Washington Post discussing impeachment and obstruction of justice. He wrote that ‘in Nixon’s case, the list of actions that together were deemed to constitute impeachable obstruction reads like a forecast of what Trump would do decades later.'”
‘Sonata, Adagio & Minuet’: A ‘Symphony’ Of Debate Emerges Around Surging Euro
“Currencies, like symphonies progress through movements, not in straight lines. As a symphony progresses through the sonata, adagio and minuet, volume and intensity crescendos and decrescendos before the final forte surge of the rondo.”
For Once In His Life, Jeff Sessions Was Right…
“…in what will probably go down as the single most important decision of his professional life, he made the right call.”
An ‘Explosion Of Large Block Trades,’ And A ‘Currency Cold War’
“We could very well be seeing a market-structure change right before our eyes.”
Oil Careens Lower On Heavy Volume; Goldman Sees “Green Shoots” For Crude
“While OPEC’s production path remains uncertain, recent fundamental oil data have come in even better than we had expected.”
Deutsche Bank, Bayer Undercut DAX, Even As Germans Most ‘Euphoric’ Since Reunification
“The indicator increased by 0.7 points, reaching a figure of 60.9 points. No better level has been recorded since reunification.”
Swiss Franc Tumbles: Euro Hits 1.12 For First Time Since Floor Was Abandoned
“For this reason we maintain our monetary policy of negative interest rates and interventions if needed.”
Trump, Republicans, And ‘Perverse Miracles’
“On both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue, we are witnessing a collapse of the norms of governing, constant violations of our legitimate expectations of political leaders, and the mutation of the normal conflicts of democracy into a form of warfare that demands the opposition’s unconditional surrender.”
Key Calls (Thursday): Upgrades, Downgrades & Initiations
You need an upgrade.
As The VIX Crashes To Record Lows, Here’s An Incredible Stat…
Nothing to see here…
PBoC Sets Yuan Fix At Strongest Since October After Fed
The dovish bias apparent in the July Fed statement has the offshore yuan closing in on its strongest level of the year.
When ‘Trillions Of Dollars’ Goes ‘Blind’: Howard Marks Is Worried About ETFs & Passive Investing
“ETFs don’t have fundamental analysts, and because they don’t question valuations, they don’t contribute to price discovery.  Not only is the number of active managers’ analysts likely to decline if more money is shifted to passive investing, but people should also wonder about who’s setting the rules that govern passive funds’ portfolio construction.”
A Dovish Fed Day In Charts
So “dovish” it was, or at least “dovish” was the market’s read on the Fed
Yields Fall Sharply As Treasurys Underpinned By Block Trade Amid ‘Wiggle Room’ Talk
“The descriptor ‘relatively’ gives policy makers some wiggle room in the event the labor market, inflation data, or possibly a debt ceiling crisis, gives the FOMC cold feet in September.”
VIX Flash Crashes To Record Low Just Before Fed Decision; Dollar Dives
“It’s probably nothing”…
Fed Decision: Full Highlights, Redline Statement
Fed Says Balance-Sheet Unwind To Start ‘Relatively Soon’
Howard Marks Warns On FAANG: ‘Investors Cannot See The Future’
“Many of the most important considerations in investing are counterintuitive. One of those is the ability to understand that no market, niche or group is likely to outperform the others forever.”
UBS Asks Borrowers Why They Might Default, Gets Hilarious Answer…
To be fair, “beauty is in the eye of the beholder,” so in that regard, if Ray wants to call a given “deleveraging” “beautiful” well then that’s his prerogative.Â
Oil Gets Good News And Bad News, With A Bias Towards Good
“Tuesday evening’s API data served to embolden bulls further and all that was missing was this morning’s EIA print to confirm things. Well, here it is.”
If We Don’t Impeach Trump, What Will The Next Guy Look Like?
” The dangers and challenges of moving forward with an impeachment effort are often obvious, but members of Congress should think carefully as well about the risks involved in refusing to pursue an impeachment when one might be warranted.”
Transgender Soldiers Will Not Participate In Inevitable Military Coup To Oust Trump
Consider yourself “advised,” LGBT community, Trump “cannot be burdened” with the “tremendous” aggravations of allowing you to fight and die for him.
Trader: ‘It’s Easy To Forget Who’s Running This Show’
“It sure makes sense. But looking back on how asset prices have behaved over the last two weeks, you’d be hard pressed to make that case.”
Actually, Trump Is Doing A Lot Of Repealing And Replacing
“Kislyak must be one forgettable fellow.”
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