Oil Gets Good News And Bad News, With A Bias Towards Good

Ok, well as detailed this morning, oil has had a pretty good run this week on the back of Saudi promises on export caps, jitters about Venezuela, and signs US producers are set to start cutting capex.

Tuesday evening’s API data served to embolden bulls further and all that was missing was this morning’s EIA print to confirm things. Well, here it is and it is indeed a big draw:

  • Crude -7,208k Bbl, Median Est. -3,000k Bbl
  • Cushing crude -1,699k
  • PADD 3 crude -4,469k
  • Gasoline -1,015k vs est. -1,800k
  • PADD 1B gasoline -63k
  • Distillates -1,852k vs est. -500k
  • PADD 1 Distillates -76k
  • Refinery utilization +0.3 ppt vs est. +0.0 ppt
  • Refinery crude inputs +166k b/d
  • Crude imports +48k b/d
  • Crude production -19k b/d

So while not as large what we got from API, it still exceeded estimates (although the Cushing draw is smaller) and the gasoline draw compares to a build reported by API.

The knee-jerk reaction is of course higher, but really we’re still floating around in the same range we were in following the API print:

WTI

“For the bulls, the good news in today’s EIA report is that oil inventories decreased across the board; the bad news is that shipments from Saudi Arabia rebounded considerably last week,” Bloomberg writes, adding that “Riyadh shipped 932,000 barrels a day to the U.S. last week, up from a 7-year low of 524,000 barrels a day two weeks ago.”

Make of this what you will.

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