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Author: therealheisenberg

Bank Of England’s Perilous High-Wire Act Continues

September 22, 2022September 25, 2022

The Bank of England raised rates for a seventh consecutive meeting on Thursday, escalating a

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Japan Goes To War With Kuroda’s BoJ Over Plunging Yen

September 22, 2022September 28, 2022

The Bank of Japan is now effectively at war with the Japanese finance ministry, an

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5 Comments on Japan Goes To War With Kuroda’s BoJ Over Plunging Yen

Powell Wishes He Could Wish Away Inflation. Alas…

September 21, 2022September 22, 2022

The Fed has reached the lowest level of restrictive policy, Jerome Powell said Wednesday, during

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13 Comments on Powell Wishes He Could Wish Away Inflation. Alas…

A Hawkish 75?

September 21, 2022September 27, 2022

The Fed on Wednesday delivered a third consecutive 75bps rate hike, escalating a historic and,

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3 Comments on A Hawkish 75?

Putin Escalates

September 21, 2022September 27, 2022

Vladimir Putin appears poised to escalate the conflict in Ukraine. Following a string of embarrassing

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34 Comments on Putin Escalates

Mobilizing On Peace Day

September 21, 2022September 22, 2022

Russian equities weren’t amused with a second day of war escalations from the Kremlin. Local

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7 Comments on Mobilizing On Peace Day

Existing Home Sales Fall Again. US Homeowners Seen ‘Locked In’

September 21, 2022September 23, 2022

Existing home sales in the US came in slightly better than expected for August, while

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7 Comments on Existing Home Sales Fall Again. US Homeowners Seen ‘Locked In’

‘Bad For America’: Dimon Steps Up Regulatory Rhetoric

September 20, 2022September 23, 2022

When last I checked in on Jamie Dimon, America’s favorite “red-blooded capitalist” was busy regaling analysts

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3 Comments on ‘Bad For America’: Dimon Steps Up Regulatory Rhetoric

100 Or Bust

September 20, 2022September 21, 2022

Back in July, when the Bank of Canada aimed a 100bps rocket-propelled grenade at the

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3 Comments on 100 Or Bust

Germany Suffers Emerging Market-Style PPI Spiral

September 20, 2022September 21, 2022

Producer prices in Germany soared last month. To the extent “soared” can be an understatement, consider

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6 Comments on Germany Suffers Emerging Market-Style PPI Spiral

Plunging Permits Are Another Housing Canary

September 20, 2022September 21, 2022

Housing starts rose far more than expected in the US last month, a development which,

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3 Comments on Plunging Permits Are Another Housing Canary

Is Kuroda Putting His Personal Legacy Above Japan’s National Interest?

September 20, 2022September 26, 2022

Telling the same yen story over and over again is admittedly a bit tedious, but

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2 Comments on Is Kuroda Putting His Personal Legacy Above Japan’s National Interest?

Good Things Gone Bad

September 19, 2022September 21, 2022

For the longest time, the case for a “soft landing” in the US revolved around

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6 Comments on Good Things Gone Bad

JPMorgan, Kolanovic Still ‘Cautiously Optimistic’

September 19, 2022September 20, 2022

The run up in terminal rate pricing and accompanying increase in US real yields are

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Paulie Walnuts And The Triumphant Return Of Cash

September 19, 2022September 20, 2022

I left the car running. I always do. It’s still scorching hot around here, and

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15 Comments on Paulie Walnuts And The Triumphant Return Of Cash

US ‘Housing Recession’ Rolls On As Sellers Lose Stranglehold

September 19, 2022September 21, 2022

There’s “no sign” that America’s “housing recession” is abating. That’s according to Robert Dietz, chief economist

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4 Comments on US ‘Housing Recession’ Rolls On As Sellers Lose Stranglehold

Taiwan ‘Strategic Ambiguity’ Is Less Ambiguous All The Time

September 19, 2022September 26, 2022

I don’t know when “strategic ambiguity” turned into an unambiguous defense commitment, but the latter

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12 Comments on Taiwan ‘Strategic Ambiguity’ Is Less Ambiguous All The Time

Mission Impossible: What To Expect From The Fed

September 18, 2022September 22, 2022

All eyes turn to the Fed in the new week. Not that traders weren’t already

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4 Comments on Mission Impossible: What To Expect From The Fed

‘The World Doesn’t Work Like That’

September 18, 2022September 19, 2022

“The world doesn’t work like that.” That’s what Zoltan Pozsar told Bloomberg earlier this month

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8 Comments on ‘The World Doesn’t Work Like That’

The Double-Barreled Threat To Stocks

September 17, 2022September 19, 2022

A near constant theme in these pages — a perpetual topic du jour, if you’ll

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2 Comments on The Double-Barreled Threat To Stocks

US Home Prices Are Destined To Fall

September 17, 2022September 24, 2022

Mortgage rates in the US rose above 6% last week for the first time since

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9 Comments on US Home Prices Are Destined To Fall

Goldman Raises US Recession Odds. Cuts Growth Outlook

September 17, 2022September 18, 2022

The implied outlook for US economic growth is now “somewhat worse.” That’s according to Goldman,

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6 Comments on Goldman Raises US Recession Odds. Cuts Growth Outlook

Bulls Stare Into Dark Abyss As Event Risks Loom

September 16, 2022September 24, 2022

It wasn’t a good week to be a bull. Images of FedEx’s largest one-day plunge

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4 Comments on Bulls Stare Into Dark Abyss As Event Risks Loom

S&P Could Fall 40% In ‘Severe Hawkish’ Scenario

September 16, 2022September 17, 2022

If we assume the likes of Bill Dudley, Larry Summers and Olivier Blanchard are correct

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4 Comments on S&P Could Fall 404 In ‘Severe Hawkish’ Scenario

Blanchard Warns ‘Zero Chance’ Of ‘Immaculate Conception’ Jobs Miracle

September 16, 2022September 21, 2022

“A critical debate has emerged” around the outlook for the US economy and the Fed’s

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8 Comments on Blanchard Warns ‘Zero Chance’ Of ‘Immaculate Conception’ Jobs Miracle

Inflation Uncertainty Soars To 1982 Levels

September 16, 2022September 21, 2022

The improvement in US consumer sentiment witnessed in late August ebbed early this month, amid

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FedEx May Be Wile E. Coyote Moment For Economy, Markets

September 16, 2022September 22, 2022

Wall Street will spend the final day of a somewhat tedious week fretting over FedEx,

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8 Comments on FedEx May Be Wile E. Coyote Moment For Economy, Markets

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Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

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To Be Happy

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Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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