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Author: therealheisenberg

Until Something Breaks

October 2, 2023October 3, 2023

Last week, during an interview with The Times of India, Jamie Dimon characterized 7% Fed

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2 Comments on Until Something Breaks

Rally Bets Saddle Stocks With ‘Upside Overhang’

October 2, 2023

“GO TIME” read the subject line of the first Q4 note from Nomura’s Charlie McElligott,

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3 Comments on Rally Bets Saddle Stocks With ‘Upside Overhang’

Expensive Observations

October 2, 2023October 3, 2023

This week’s earliest market commentary revolved around the profound observation that Kevin McCarthy’s surprising decision

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1 Comment on Expensive Observations

US Manufacturing Stabilizes With All Eyes On Services

October 2, 2023October 3, 2023

US manufacturing activity contracted for an 11th month in September, the first of this week’s

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Open For Business

October 1, 2023October 6, 2023

Visuals depicting Kevin McCarthy fist-bumping Steve Scalise (and Chuck Schumer flashing a double thumbs up)

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1 Comment on Open For Business

Three Reasons Dollar Strength Can Continue

October 1, 2023October 2, 2023

Dollar strength is the talk of the proverbial town. Perhaps you noticed. Thanks to a

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Dysfunction, Division and Dystopia

October 1, 2023December 30, 2024

Four months ago this week, I was busy putting the finishing touches on “Holistic People,”

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7 Comments on Dysfunction, Division and Dystopia

Higher Interest Expense Finally Bites For Corporate America

September 30, 2023October 20, 2023

By now, it’s a familiar refrain: Interest costs (or at least interest payments) for the

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3 Comments on Higher Interest Expense Finally Bites For Corporate America

Wall Street Navigates Unfamiliar Waters In ‘Higher-For-Longer’ Regime Shift

September 30, 2023October 2, 2023

Interest rates have “reset to a ‘higher-for-longer’ regime.” That’s according to Goldman’s Praveen Korapaty, who

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Inflows To US Stock Funds Resume, But Sentiment Darkens Further

September 29, 2023September 29, 2023

US equity-focused ETFs and mutual funds returned to inflows over the latest weekly reporting period.

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Reading History

September 29, 2023October 1, 2023

Rates (and bond yields and financing costs for homes) may seem high to you, but

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3 Comments on Reading History

Fed’s Core Inflation Gauge Cools Further As US Braces For Shutdown Data Blackout

September 29, 2023October 1, 2023

Underlying inflation on the Fed’s preferred measure rose at the slowest monthly pace in nearly

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Europe Gets Good Inflation News. With The Usual Caveats

September 29, 2023September 30, 2023

There was good news on the inflation front in Europe Friday. Headline price growth probably

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Money Market Fund Assets Rise Back Near Record

September 28, 2023

Money market funds recouped minuscule mid-month redemptions with a $6.31 billion inflow in the week

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1 Comment on Money Market Fund Assets Rise Back Near Record

September’s Twin Stock, Bond Selloff Is Bitter Pill For Fed-Weary Markets

September 28, 2023October 4, 2023

All eyes were once again on the rates complex Thursday, as traders and investors of

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4 Comments on September’s Twin Stock, Bond Selloff Is Bitter Pill For Fed-Weary Markets

UK Bonds Suffer Dramatic Selloff

September 28, 2023

UK bonds suffered what it’s fair to call an egregious rout on Thursday. The repricing

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Pending Home Sales Plunge As Rates Soar In ‘Frozen’ Market

September 28, 2023September 29, 2023

Pending home sales tumbled in August, a bad omen for already depressed existing home sales.

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US Spending Revised Sharply Lower, Tempering Hawkish Jobless Claims

September 28, 2023September 29, 2023

For the second week in a row, US jobless claims printed at rock-bottom levels, underscoring

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Oil In Focus As ‘Dry’ Cushing Prompts Hand-Wringing

September 28, 2023September 29, 2023

There was talk of a “toxic cocktail” on Thursday amid elevated bond yields and a

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7 Comments on Oil In Focus As ‘Dry’ Cushing Prompts Hand-Wringing

What’s Behind The Suddenly Positive Term Premium?

September 27, 2023September 27, 2023

The term premium is positive again. Maybe you heard. Actually, you probably didn’t hear. This

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1 Comment on What’s Behind The Suddenly Positive Term Premium?

Why Marko Kolanovic Sees A ‘Rate Shock’ Reckoning

September 27, 2023

JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic doesn’t agree with the notion that the majority of the drag from

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Marko Kolanovic Conjures 2008 Crash With Striking Reprint

September 27, 2023October 6, 2023

The market is likely to be “more volatile” in the near-term, and the risk-reward in

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4 Comments on Marko Kolanovic Conjures 2008 Crash With Striking Reprint

Another Word On America’s Unprecedented Deposit Drop

September 27, 2023September 27, 2023

I’m supposed to say something meaningful about an unprecedented decline in US bank deposits. The

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2 Comments on Another Word On America’s Unprecedented Deposit Drop

As Mortgage Rates Soar, Georgia Caboose Is Bargain At $42,000

September 27, 2023September 28, 2023

I’m not sure it’s worth mentioning at this point, but mortgage rates are still rising.

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3 Comments on As Mortgage Rates Soar, Georgia Caboose Is Bargain At $42,000

How Sustainable Is The Stock Selloff? McElligott Answers

September 27, 2023September 28, 2023

How sustainable is the nascent correction in US equities? At the fundamental level, a lot

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2 Comments on How Sustainable Is The Stock Selloff? McElligott Answers

China Has Evergrande, And Its Billionaire Founder, Under Control

September 27, 2023October 6, 2023

Everything at China Evergrande is under control. Including billionaire chairman Hui Ka Yan. Hui, media reports

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3 Comments on China Has Evergrande, And Its Billionaire Founder, Under Control

The Stocks Are Broken

September 26, 2023September 27, 2023

If you’re a Fed official and your “higher for longer” message is already resonating, it’s

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2 Comments on The Stocks Are Broken

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Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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