Until Something Breaks

Last week, during an interview with The Times of India, Jamie Dimon characterized 7% Fed funds as a worst-case scenario.

Just days later, he suggested 7% is more baseline than worst-case. In fact, he was definitive about it. Asked if rates are going to 7%, he said “Yes.”

Just kidding! Hope you’re not an algo programmed to trade on Bloomberg red heds.

DIMON: WHEN ASKED IF INTEREST RATES GO TO 7%, THE ANSWER IS YES

So declared one among a deluge of all-caps headlines blasted out to hundreds of thousands of terminals (and God only knows how many headline-scanning robots) on Monday morning in the US.

Then, seconds later, this:

CORRECT: DIMON: WHEN ASKED IF RATES CAN GO TO 7%, ANSWER IS YES

That’s a big difference! “Do you have cancer? The answer is yes.” “Ok, I’m going to go jump off a bridge now, thanks.” “Correct: It’s possible you could get cancer at some point, yes.” “Too late, I’m already halfway through a header into the East River.”

I’m just joking, Bloomberg. All in good, morbid fun.

Dimon’s remarks around rates and inflation on Monday added to an already hawkish cacophony which, when coupled with the removal of the US government shutdown left-tail and an ISM manufacturing beat, pushed Treasury yields higher across the curve in a belly- / intermediates-led selloff.

“Today shows the macro three horsemen again emerging into the new calendar turn, with the dollar following higher nominal and real yields and early crude strength all acting in concert to tighten financial conditions and lean on risk,” Nomura’s Charlie McElligott remarked.

The “something’s bound to break” chorus is now pretty loud, spurred on, ironically, by a US economy which steadfastly refuses to break.

That simple point (i.e., the juxtaposition between financial assets barreling towards some manner of rates-driven calamity, and an economy that by appearances can withstand Dimon’s 7% base worst-case) probably deserves more attention.

Indeed, there’s a missed editorial opportunity for the likes of Bloomberg given the prevalence of the r-star debate. The problem, in a nutshell, is that r-double-star (the equilibrium rate for financial markets) is probably lower than r-star (the equilibrium rate for the economy).

If that’s true, the tradeoff for the Fed is perhaps more terrifying than the “Jobs or price stability?” quandary. “Can the economy handle 7% Fed funds?” isn’t a straightforward question. “Can markets calibrated to 0% Fed funds handle 7% Fed funds?” is about as straightforward as indeterminate questions get. Here’s how I put it in the Weekly+:

Ours is a world calibrated to policy rates at the lower-bound. And calibrated to rock-bottom yields on safe-haven government bonds. And calibrated to central banks as a perpetual source of demand for the debt of their respective sovereigns. And calibrated to forward guidance aimed at suppressing rates vol. And calibrated to structural disinflation. Ours is a world with $307 trillion in outstanding debt. Ours isn’t a world built to withstand rapidly rising rates and yields.

So, it’s clear what I’m saying? 7% would be pushing it, if not for the economy, then surely for markets calibrated to the post-Lehman “state of exception” (to quote Aleksandar Kocic, who celebrates four months of retirement in October).

Lest anyone should get too gloomy about the implications of higher-for-longer rates and structurally elevated inflation in a dangerous world, Dimon offered a rosy assessment of the future for our species. “Your children are going to live to 100 and not have cancer because of technology,” he went on to tell Bloomberg Monday.

Spoiler alert: That’s probably not how it’s going to turn out. Your children (or at least your grandchildren) are going to witness climatic oblivion (and for God’s sake, go read “Oblivion“), famine, Biblical droughts, refugee crises on an unimaginable scale and, most probably, the return of fascism.

In Dimon’s defense, it’s easy to be optimistic when you’re a billionaire and your kids would surely have reserved seats on any Earth escape ship Elon Musk might be building way out in the Texas desert.


 

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2 thoughts on “Until Something Breaks

  1. It seems the burn it down mentality of the MAGA cohort has spread to the fed. Blue collar workers can’t tolerate higher rates. I’m probably guilty of oversimplifying things, but I think blue collar can handle inflation better then rates. A dreaded wage increase spiral might actually expand the middle class, and make work pay again for the segment left behind by years of offshoring etc

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