Visuals depicting Kevin McCarthy fist-bumping Steve Scalise (and Chuck Schumer flashing a double thumbs up) following an eleventh hour deal to avert a government shutdown in the US were decidedly Clark Griswold.

America’s highest ranking elected officials believe self congratulations are in order when they agree to keep the government open.

There was a time when I found that sort of thing genuinely funny: Adults tasked with governing the world’s economic and military hegemon oblivious to the sheer blatant absurdity inherent in the notion that keeping the lights on counts as a resounding testament to managerial competence. I’d liken it to paying your electric bill then taking a victory lap around the block, leaping for chest-bumps and high-fives with your neighbors, but even that fails to capture the delirious idiocy: There’s no actual budget constraint. The US mints the world’s reserve currency. The charade used to be funny. Now it’s just pathetic.

For those interested in my lengthy take on the so-called “shutdown-that-wasn’t,” you can read it here+. Otherwise, I suppose we can skip the laments for another sordid episode in America’s ongoing institutional credibility crisis and be thankful that, with a shutdown averted, the slate of top-tier US economic data will be released either on schedule or at least close to schedule.

Consensus expects around 165,000 from the headline NFP print for September. That’d be a slight downshift from August’s pace as initially reported.

The three-month moving average through August was 150,000. That’s about “right” for the Fed. Indeed, you could argue the pace needs to moderate a bit further in the context of the inflation fight. Ideally (and this should go without saying), wage growth will be well-behaved.

Remember: Job growth is ultimately a reflection of demand in the economy. Employers don’t hire people out of a commitment to benevolence, sadly. If they’re hiring, it means there’s unmet demand for goods and services. That demand, to the extent it’s still out of balance with supply, is the locus of concern for a Fed worried that inflation might not be dead, but rather “just resting.”

Consensus expects the unemployment rate to tick lower, to 3.7%. The September SEP found the Fed lowering their projections for the jobless rate, which is now expected to peak at just 4.1%. More than a few commentators find that unrealistic — it’s incongruous with Jerome Powell’s insistence on the notion that the labor market will need to soften further to ensure inflation’s return to target. Nobody’s ever described 4.1% unemployment as a “soft” labor market.

The JOLTS report is nearly as important as NFP. The “immaculate disinflation” narrative hinges on the idea that the glut of job openings can absorb any downshift in demand, sparing the economy actual job losses. Doubts abound.

Recall that the openings to unemployed ratio dropped to 1.51 based on the last JOLTS report, the lowest since September of 2021. Consensus expects only a modest decline in total openings from the update, due Tuesday.

Claims will be in focus as well. For two consecutive weeks, initial jobless claims printed eight-month lows, seemingly suggesting the US labor market is nowhere near rolling over. ADP on Wednesday is expected to show US private sector employers added 160,000 jobs last month.

As ever, both ISM reports will be eyed closely. Flash reads on S&P Global’s PMIs suggested the US economy was effectively stagnant last month. Without taking a view on manufacturing, it’s fair to say markets wouldn’t be terribly upset with a “disappointing” read on ISM services, as long as any deceleration isn’t indicative of the dreaded “sudden stop.” Consensus is looking for 47.8 from the factory gauge (which would mark an 11th month in contraction territory) and 53.6 from the ISM services print.

Unfortunately, Americans won’t be spared political theater just because a shutdown was averted. Matt Gaetz will try to oust Kevin McCarthy as House speaker in retaliation for McCarthy’s deal with Democrats to keep the government open. “Nobody trusts Kevin,” Gaetz insisted. “I’ll survive,” McCarthy said.