Money Market Fund Assets Rise Back Near Record

Money market funds recouped minuscule mid-month redemptions with a $6.31 billion inflow in the week to September 27, data released late Thursday in the US showed.

The prior week saw total assets slip from records amid $7 billion in outflows. At $5.644 trillion, total AUM is now virtually back to the all-time highs reached in the week to September 13.

This week’s inflow came courtesy of retail investors. A $4 billion outflow in the institutional prime category more than offset $2.2 billion of inflows to institutional government.

For the year, inflows stand at $908.9 billion.

The story is the same. High rates on money market funds continue to be attractive relative to bank deposits or at least relative to many bank deposit products. An S&P report released this week based on data from an annual FDIC survey showed deposits fell YoY through the end of June for the first time since at least 1994. It wasn’t new information, per se, but it was yet another reminder of shrinking bank deposit bases.

According to Barclays, around 42% of the Fed’s 525bps of rate hikes have been passed along by banks to depositors. Initially, that figure was just 10%. More recently, the rise in deposit rates outstripped the (now slower) pace of Fed hikes. The same Barclays note said banks are leaning on time deposits to avoid a larger jump in interest expense. So, they’ve raised rates on CDs “while keeping a lid on most of their other balances,” as Joseph Abate put it. “Future deposit outflows will depend on how much further deposit rates rise and to the extent to which banks are able to substitute time deposits for other balances,” he remarked.

As for the MMF-RRP-T-Bill nexus, it seems reasonably clear at this point that the threat of a destabilizing liquidity drain is behind us. Yes, the Fed may hike rates again this year, which could mean bills need to cheapen further to entice money funds, but the benign RRP transformation dynamic was sufficient to short circuit a lot of the risk associated with the post-debt ceiling deal TGA rebuild, and it’s fair to suggest that’ll continue to be the case.

Investors are still favoring four-week bills over eight-week paper given the latter matures after the November Fed meeting, but there was no sign of trouble at Thursday’s auctions. Treasury lifted the size of its bill auctions this week. RRP balances are steady at around $1.45 trillion.

Meanwhile, usage of the Fed’s Bank Term Funding Program rose slightly over the week, to $107.715 billion.

Discount window borrowing, which rose to the highest since early July last week, ticked up again, to $3.19 billion.

Total borrowing from the backstops exceeded $110 billion for the third straight week and the fourth in five.


 

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