Marko Kolanovic Conjures 2008 Crash With Striking Reprint
The market is likely to be "more volatile" in the near-term, and the risk-reward in equities and credit spreads remains negative over the medium-term, particularly given competition from high-yielding cash.
That's according to a lengthy new note from the desk of JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic.
Marko addressed a variety of topics across 10 pages, but perhaps the most notable section wasn't written by Kolanovic at all.
Towards the end of the note, he cautioned that "there are enough similarities" b
The Dow continued to move up after the June 2006 last hike, until peaking November 2007. Then slowly ground down until 2008 and bottoming. So if we are on a similar path it looks like the market will grind higher until late 2024/early 2025 before bottoming? Alot of time to run the course.
Seems remarkably dissimilar: the Fed is not bluffing and everyone knows they’ll hike if inflation returns. There isn’t a giant bubble (that real estate CDS was bogus was well documented in 2008 hence the big short) – crypto burst and big tech deflated in 2022. China’s now in a much more fragile place economically and Europe has a land war.
Well, yeah, there are differences. No analogue is perfect. “Your life today is remarkably dissimilar with 10 years ago. After all, you drove a different car then, you lived in a different place, you had different shoes and if you look at what you had for dinner in the first three weeks of September in 2013, the menu was entirely different to what you ate for dinner this month. You didn’t even eat salmon back then, and look at you now: A salmon addict!”
lol!