The market is likely to be “more volatile” in the near-term, and the risk-reward in equities and credit spreads remains negative over the medium-term, particularly given competition from high-yielding cash.
That’s according to a lengthy new note from the desk of JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic.
Marko addressed a variety of topics across 10 pages, but perhaps the most notable section wasn’t written by Kolanovic at all.
Towards the end of the note, he cautioned that “there are enough similarities” between now and the lead-up to the 2008 crash “to warrant caution.” In an effort to drive home the point, he reproduced, verbatim, a section from a January 2007 fixed income piece penned by Edward Marrinan.
It’s “well worth reading today,” Kolanovic said, adding that back then, “investors were discussing the exact same topics” as they are now. Those topics: A Fed pause, a resilient US consumer, a soft landing and a strong labor market.
Marko included the entire 2007 note, but he helpfully bolded certain passages to help market participants see the parallels. Below, find those bolded passages. Note that the author (Marrinan) was both recapping recent events and looking ahead.
The Fed institutes its last rate hike on June 30, 2006, lifting the Fed funds rate to its current 5.25%, a move many thought was overkill. The Fed officially pauses… and risky assets embark on a powerful rally. However, the economy is slowing perceptibly in response to [the] cumulative hiking over the preceding two years. We might also call this the “denial” phase.
The economy provides compelling evidence that it is more resilient than many had earlier believed. [S]trong nonfarm payrolls opens skeptics’ eyes about the underlying strength of the economy [which] shakes off the effects of higher interest rates and high commodity prices. Market participants give up the ghost on their hopes for easing, accept that the Fed has engineered a soft landing, and buy (literally) into the view that a Goldilocks economy is in the making. Economic growth is solid at around 3% and led by a reinvigorated consumer; the residential housing sector slowly stabilizes; corporate earnings growth moderates but doesn’t collapse; and inflationary pressures ease off but do not dissipate. Risky assets trade at full valuations and remain in a narrow, low vol range. We’ll call this the “head fake” phase — everything feels too good to be true because it is. In case you didn’t notice, this is where we are right now.
However, before any move to raise interest rates, the Fed will intensify its hawkish rhetoric in an effort to prepare the market. Some investors will take note and reduce risk while others call the Fed’s bluff, stubbornly clinging to the view that housing, the consumer and high leverage in the system will be legitimate excuses for the Fed to hold off. Our best guess is that such a phase could emerge later this year, possibly during the third quarter.
You have to admit: Marko has a point. That sounds eerily familiar to today’s setup.
The title of his Wednesday note: “History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes with 2008.”
Read more: Why Marko Kolanovic Sees A ‘Rate Shock’ Reckoning+


The Dow continued to move up after the June 2006 last hike, until peaking November 2007. Then slowly ground down until 2008 and bottoming. So if we are on a similar path it looks like the market will grind higher until late 2024/early 2025 before bottoming? Alot of time to run the course.
Seems remarkably dissimilar: the Fed is not bluffing and everyone knows they’ll hike if inflation returns. There isn’t a giant bubble (that real estate CDS was bogus was well documented in 2008 hence the big short) – crypto burst and big tech deflated in 2022. China’s now in a much more fragile place economically and Europe has a land war.
Well, yeah, there are differences. No analogue is perfect. “Your life today is remarkably dissimilar with 10 years ago. After all, you drove a different car then, you lived in a different place, you had different shoes and if you look at what you had for dinner in the first three weeks of September in 2013, the menu was entirely different to what you ate for dinner this month. You didn’t even eat salmon back then, and look at you now: A salmon addict!”
lol!