If it’s possible to write a scary-sounding or otherwise foreboding basis trade story, somebody will
Author: therealheisenberg
Meanwhile, In Taiwan
Every month, I provide a brief update on what I consider to be two reasonably
New Home Sales Drop With Prices Loitering Near Half A Million
The pace of new home sales in the US fell to a five-month low last
Consumer Confidence Tumbles Again On Plunging Expectations
US consumer confidence slipped in September, according to this month’s update on the Conference Board
US Home Prices Notch New Record, Threatening Inflation Fight
US home prices rose for six consecutive months midway through summer, data released on Tuesday
Dimon, Debt And Impossible Math
Jamie Dimon was in the news on Tuesday for the not-exactly-groundbreaking observation that Fed funds
Kolanovic, JPMorgan Warn Against Dismissing Yield Curve Canary
I’ve been irreverent at times about the yield curve as a recession predictor. I instinctually
American Consumer Seen Stretched With Two-Thirds Of COVID Savings Gone
If you’re forecasting a material deceleration in US economic activity during Q4, you should stop.
Bond Bears Revel In Worsening Long-End Selloff
This week’s earliest price action underscored the peril inherent in leaning long duration into a
‘Stocks Have Taken On A Different Personality,’ Mike Wilson Says
“Stocks have taken on a different personality” since the end of Q2 earnings season, Morgan
The Flows Behind Last Week’s Stock Selloff
Surprise! Last week’s selloff in US equities, the worst since March, was in no small
China Meltdown Worries Resurface With Evergrande Restructuring In Doubt
China’s property developers were back in the spotlight Monday, where that means they were shot
Treasury Yields ‘Vulnerable To A Pullback,’ Goldman Says
“We think bond yields are vulnerable to a pullback.” So said Goldman’s Praveen Korapaty in
In Shutdown Threat, A Lifelong Hustle Continues
House Republicans, where that means Kevin McCarthy’s far-right flank, are angling for a government shutdown.
What If Bonds Don’t Rally In A Recession?
“Relentless” is probably too strong, so I’ll use “persistent” instead. Given the persistent rise in
Triple-Digit Oil Calls Suggest Floor Under Energy Stocks
Goldman’s clients are asking about oil prices, and particularly about the read-through of recent increases
Buckle Up: Higher For Longer = Hard Landing
I was skeptical of the so-called “Wile E. Coyote” moment narrative for the US economy. “Was,”
US Equity Funds Suffer Largest Outflow Of 2023
The Lord giveth and the Lord taketh away. It was just a week ago when
Bill Ackman’s Bombastic Bond Short
This is the part where I’m supposed to tell you US bond yields are destined
US Economy Is Cooling, PMIs Suggest. Will Bonds Care?
Preliminary PMI data for the US released on Friday offered few surprises, which was just
In Europe, More Stagflation
Activity data released on Friday offered scant evidence to suggest the European economy can avoid
Money Fund Assets Slip From Record With First Outflow Since August
Money market fund AUM retreated from record highs in the week to September 20, data
‘Simply Wait Until Something Goes Wrong’
On Thursday, in “Fade The Fed,” I suggested it might be time to… well, time
Fade The Fed?
“We continue to see five- to 10-year real and nominal rates as attractive, but markets
Is It Time For A Cascading, Mechanical Stock Selloff?
Is it time for a cascading stock selloff? Maybe. Thursday’s bear steepening in the US
Things Fall Apart
Is everything about to fall apart? Yes, surely. It’s just a matter of what you
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