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Kolanovic, JPMorgan Warn Against Dismissing Yield Curve Canary
I've been irreverent at times about the yield curve as a recession predictor.
I instinctually recoil at the idea of infallibility, unless it applies to me, in which case I'm absolutely fine with it. (I'm just joking.)
Over the weekend, in "What If Bonds Don't Rally In A Recession," I tempered the sarcastic derision I sometimes employ when editorializing around the all-knowing curve. "The three-month, 10-year curve is at least as reliable as any other recession canary," I wrote. If you accept t
I can’t shake an old cartoon image where chairman Powell is about to open a wooden box, little knowing that it holds a large boxing glove on a tightly coiled spring.