Every month, I provide a brief update on what I consider to be two reasonably important macro indicators: Industrial production and export figures out of Taiwan.

While perhaps not as “exciting” as another “Is The Yield Curve Wrong?” rewrite or this week’s installment of “Why Mike Wilson Is Still Bearish On US Equities,” these short bulletins serve a purpose: They’re a reminder not only of the extent to which Taiwan is a bellwether for global demand and a weather vane for the chip wars, but also of the disconcerting possibility that the fate of the world could eventually turn on the island.

More simply (and to recycle familiar language) Taiwan is both a macro and geopolitical canary.

With that in mind, note that industrial production in Taiwan fell a 15th straight month in August, according to data released late last week. For the record (literally) that’s the longest streak of YoY declines in recorded history.

That’s the bad news. The good news is, the YoY decline was the shallowest since February, at “just” 10.5%.

The manufacturing subindex (which comprises around 90% of the overall IP gauge), fell 10.7%. Both indexes have improved on a MoM basis since May.

What does all of that mean, exactly? Well, broadly speaking it means global consumer demand is still lackluster. Indeed, that was the assessment of the island’s Ministry of Economic Affairs, which lamented weak end-user demand and a protracted period of inventory adjustment across global supply chains.

Notably, the electronics index (officially “Manufacture of Electronic Parts and Components” for those of you inclined to dig into the island’s official data catalogue) fell nearly 17% from a year ago. Apparently, subdued consumer electronics demand abroad is still weighing heavily on semiconductor suppliers.

However, an index for computers, electronics and optical products (a proxy for cloud, data center and A.I. demand) actually rose on a YoY basis for the second month in a row.

Panning out to exports, shipments abroad fell 7.3% YoY in August.

It was the 12th straight monthly decline.

The silver lining: 7.3% actually counted as a marked improvement versus much deeper declines seen throughout the ongoing downturn.