The vast majority of bank clients are confused about the resilience of stocks in 2023,
Author: therealheisenberg
Europe Picks Up Steam. Goldman Raises ECB Call
The European economy, largely left for dead late last year, continued to perform in February,
High-Altitude Hallucinations
Late last month, in “Plane English,” I expressed something akin to exhaustion with market participants’
‘Death Zones’ And The Trillion-Dollar Liquidity Narrative
In his latest note, currently making the proverbial rounds, Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson channeled Jon
Fed Success May Go Through Shrinking Corporate Profits
The US may be headed for an earnings recession+, but compared to the rest of
Where To Now For Corporate Profits?
Analysts have rapidly cut profit forecasts for corporate America, even as the breadth of negative
Wartime Presidents
On Sunday evening, the White House’s public schedule for Joe Biden suggested he’d be in
Suddenly, People Are Asking The Bigger Macro Question
The “structural shift” discussion as it relates to long run rates in a new macro
Three-Card Monte
In the new week, markets will be treated to more key economic data impacted by
Stocks March To Their Own Drum
Headed into this year, a generic narrative about bullish equity sentiment went something like this.
In Munich, China Scolds US, Harris Decries Putin
48 hours prior to the convening of the Munich Security Conference, I offered a gentle
Forever Inflation?
I argued repeatedly last year that inflation might become stochastic in 2023 and beyond. Much
How Extreme Is 2023’s Bullish Sentiment Shift?
Notwithstanding tentative signs of exhaustion over the past two weeks, the story of 2023 in
The Mystery Of Oblivious Stocks
Recalcitrant stocks are “baffling” Wall Street, declared a Bloomberg headline. It was an accurate, if
Dollars, Deficits, Debt And Wars
If it’s deficit and debt doomsaying you’re after, I’m not your guy. Regular readers are
Are HELOCs Making The Fed’s Job Harder?
When you spend nearly two years minting scores of overnight millionaires, you shouldn’t be terribly
A ‘Pure Markets Guy’ Explains The Fed’s Inability To Tighten
I’ve spent quite a bit of time lately on the r-star discussion. It’s important, and
‘No Landing’ May Presage Stock Selloff, Late-Year Recession
The likely result of a “no landing” macro environment in the first half of 2023
The Fed Is Angry. And The Dollar Is Back
The Fed’s mission is “very much unaccomplished.” That’s according to BofA’s Michael Hartnett, but more
US Card Debt Hits New Record Near $1 Trillion
Americans were the proud owners of a record 564 million credit card accounts at the
‘No Landing’ Becomes Consensus
If you ask Loretta Mester, demand across the US economy isn’t weakening as much as
‘Expect More, Not Less Geopolitical Tension’
News out of Eastern Europe was predictably foreboding on Thursday. Kyiv says it’s being forced
Cash For Haters
If you “hate” stocks, you’ll love cash. Admittedly, this story feels a bit tired, but
Doves Singed By Blazing US Producer Prices
So, about that “pipeline disinflation” story. Markets were treated to yet another hot data release
Avenging Fallen Comrades
China’s foreign ministry isn’t sure the US possesses the “sincerity and capability to properly handle
Defiant Stocks ‘Taunt’ Fed By Ignoring Dramatic Rates Repricing
Over the past week, quite a bit of digital ink was spilled editorializing around the
The Market Is Becoming ‘More Vulnerable,’ One Bank Warns
Nobody would blame you for suggesting market sentiment outran the fundamentals during the opening weeks
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