In the new week, markets will be treated to more key economic data impacted by “balmy weather and distortion in the January adjustments.”

The quote is from Dan Loeb or, more precisely, a Twitter account which appears to belong to Dan Loeb. Elon Musk’s decision to allow anyone with a few dollars and a debit card to obtain a blue verification badge on their profile makes it hard to say who’s actually who on the social network these days.

Loeb isn’t alone in questioning whether the run of hot data is another example of how macro investing can be “like a game of three-card monte,” as he put it. Investing is also an echo chamber. Loeb was responding to tweets from Gavin Baker, who quoted BofA’s Michael Hartnett, in parroting the “no landing” narrative.

The marquee data points this week are (obviously) US personal spending and the accompanying update on the PCE price gauges, which almost surely rose by the most in months. Consensus is looking for a 0.5% MoM gain on the headline gauge and 0.4% increase on core. The former would be the hottest read since June.

Goldman sees upside to the prints. “Based on details in the PPI and CPI reports, we estimate that the core PCE price index rose 0.55% in January, corresponding to a YoY rate of +4.50% [and] we expect the headline PCE price index increased 0.60%, or 5.10% from a year earlier,” the bank said last week, while adding a June hike to their house Fed call. They cited “elevated inflation in medical services, international airfares, financial services and prescription drugs” in suggesting core PCE is biased higher relative to core CPI.

Personal spending data, released concurrently with the PCE price figures, is expected to show a 1.3% gain for January. The figures will be eyed in the context of the retail sales report, which suggested nominal spending was very robust last month.

Those figures are all due Friday. The day before, the BEA will release the second estimate of Q4 GDP. Were it not for January’s string of upside data surprises, I’d suggest the GDP revision would be parsed for additional evidence of economic deceleration. But the macro narrative is now so obsessively focused on the re-acceleration story, that I’m not sure any downward revisions will matter, other than perhaps to bolster claims that January’s readings are anomalous.

The February FOMC minutes will be watched (or, rather, read) closely. As discussed here on Saturday, it’s possible the account of this month’s policy gathering will reiterate the message from the December minutes, only in the context of January’s rally instead of November’s.

As a reminder, the December minutes had the following to say about financial conditions: “Because monetary policy worked importantly through financial markets, an unwarranted easing in financial conditions, especially if driven by a misperception by the public of the Committee’s reaction function, would complicate the Committee’s effort to restore price stability.” There’s no longer a “misperception” among bonds and STIRs about “the Committee’s reaction function.” Stocks are another story, though.

Jerome Powell was widely criticized for not repeating the pseudo-admonition from the December minutes during his press conference this month. If the minutes reference financial conditions and, specifically, the read-through of market rallies for the Fed’s inflation fight, it could serve as a wakeup call to equities, which have so far resisted the hawkish repricing seen across the US rates complex.

Also on deck in the new week: Flash readings on S&P Global’s PMIs for February, the final read on University of Michigan sentiment for this month and key housing data, including existing and new home sales. The housing figures will be watched for more signs that the easing in financial conditions and accompanying decline in mortgage rates from last year’s peak is beginning to manifest in “animal spirits” on Main Street.

As far as Fed speak, traders will hear from Bostic, Collins, Daly, Jefferson, Mester and Waller.